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Slovakia: Inflation slightly above consensus

Fri, May 11 2007, 09:50 GMT
by Stanislava Pravdova

Danske Bank A/S  |  View company's profile


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The Slovak Statistical Office has released inflation numbers for April. Although we and consensus had expected further moderation to 2.6% y/y, down from 2.7% y/y in March, inflation in April remained flat. Furthermore, month-on-month inflation rose 0.2%, slightly higher than the consensus forecast of 0.1% m/m.

The main culprit was higher food prices (mainly due to seasonally higher prices of vegetables and fruit). Second biggest contributor to April’s inflation was higher prices in the transport sector.

Inflation in Slovakia has shown a decline since the beginning of this year but today’s figure confirms that food prices are on the rise. Fuel prices represent a main inflation risk as well. All in all, although inflation is expected to drop further in the coming months, the Slovak central bank (NBS) should not downplay possible inflationary risks implying that the NBS should wait with further monetary easing. At the next monetary policy setting meeting at the end of May, we expect the central bank to stay on hold, keeping the key policy rate at 4.25%.


Danske Bank http://www.danskebank.com/ | danskeresearch@danskebank.com


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