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Slovakia: Flash 2Q08 GDP estimate slowed down to 7.6% y/y, matching expectations
Thu, Aug 14 2008, 09:36 GMT
by Michal Musâk
Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG
- Statistical Office published flash GDP estimate for 2Q08. The annual economic growth reached 7.6%, matching our forecast and market consensus. Seasonally adjusted, the growth stood at 8.0%. The final figure is set to be released on September 3 but it uses to be close to the flash estimate.
- The GDP structure will also be released only at the beginning of September. We assume that both domestic demand and net export contributed to the economic growth. We think that the slowdown compared to previous quarter (the economy grew by 8.7% in 1Q08) was caused primarily by lower stock accumulation and some (limited) deceleration of household consumption growth.
- We expect the economic growth to slow down somewhat in the second half of 2008 (basically because of the last quarter, when the slowdown will be due to high one-off base effect from last year). In 2008 we expect annual GDP growth equal to that of 2Q08, at 7.6% y/y. This is deceleration compared to 2007 but last year’s 10.4% was helped by one-off contribution of new car factories that launched production.
- Employment continues in favourable development. In 2Q08, number of employed people grew by 2.9% y/y.
Published on Thu, Aug 14 2008, 09:39 GMT
Erste Bank
http://global.treasury.erstebank.com | Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at
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