http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2012-02-07.htmlWhile today’s preliminary industrial figures came in below expectations, we would not come to the solid conclusion that this is a great negative surprise. As for the outlook for 2012, we expect 3.5% growth. The decline in the manufacturing sentiment indicators in the autumn months to below 50 suggest that export performance may be less favourable than in 2011. Effect of fewer working days in December 2011 shows in figures Today’s preliminary industrial data came in lower than expected, showingTue, 07 Feb 2012 14:45:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2012-02-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2012-01-24.htmlContrary to our (and broad market) expectations, the policy rate remained at 7%. While market indicators show lower rate hike expectations than prior to the decision, we would not rule out monetary tightening, if the sentiment around the European debt crisis worsens, or some negative news are released in connection with IMF/EC talks. The close decision is likely due to the strong difference in the standpoints between the government-nominated members and the Governor and the two Vice Governors.Tue, 24 Jan 2012 14:21:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2012-01-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2012-01-23.htmlResults from Croatia's referendum on European Union membership yielded comfortable vote, as 66% of electorate voted in favor of EU membership. Referendum yielded comfortable vote, as 66% of electorate voted in favor of EU membership. Results somewhat outperformed recent polls, signaling broad EU support and suggesting EU skepticism being somewhat overstated recently. Now when the referendum is behind us we expect no drawbacks ahead expecting Croatia entry on July 1st, 2013. We see Croatia riskMon, 23 Jan 2012 10:26:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2012-01-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2012-01-13.htmlConsumer prices rose 0.2% m/m, while the 12-month inflation rate slowed to 4.1%, from, 4.3% seen in November. At the beginning of this year, the higher VAT kicks in, and this, combined with a weaker forint, may bring the CPI figure to around 5.5%. The central bank is expected to further increase the base rate, to 7.50% at the upcoming monetary meeting (to be held on January 24). CPI slowed to 4.1% from 4.3% seen in November, m/m was 0.2% Consumer prices rose 0.2% m/m, while the 12-monthFri, 13 Jan 2012 09:46:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2012-01-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2012-01-09.htmlThe +4.2% m/m figure is quite surprising, while the average of the last three monthly indices is at 2.4%, and is showing growth in the last few months. This good development is in contrast with the still low German manufacturing PMI. Hopes increased that export demand may be better than earlier anticipated next year, but we think it is too early to draw the firm conclusion that industrial growth figures can be revised strongly upwards for 2012. According to the CSO, the energy sector alsoMon, 09 Jan 2012 09:37:46 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2012-01-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2012-01-04.htmlAs the financing situation of the government is not that pressing, we expect an agreement with the IMF only in the second quarter. Bonds and the forint could continue to decline during this period. The central bank may continue to hike the base rate, and the chance of an emergency rate hike is again increasing. Overall, however, we continue to expect that a deal will be reached, and the possibility is increasing that the markets may force the cabinet to turn to the IMF earlier. The cabinetWed, 04 Jan 2012 14:52:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2012-01-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-12-20.v02.htmlAlbeit the step was in-line with expectations, the forint firmed on the decision. We think further rate hikes may be avoided if the agreement with the IMF/EC is reached and there are no strong negative developments with the European debt situation. In a positive scenario, further rate hikes may be avoided, and in the second half of 2012, the base rate may even be lowered. Simor welcomes recent amendments to Central Bank law, but still sees lack of progress in some areas; approval of the lawTue, 20 Dec 2011 16:01:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-12-20.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-12-20.htmlThe CBS published detailed 3Q GDP figures, revising the flash estimate upwards by a notch to 0.7% y/y. The component breakdown revealed known weaknesses. Private consumption remained stagnant (0.1% y/y), confirming modest consumption momentum amid weak consumer sentiment, labor market and consumer credit. Public consumption (-0.4% y/y) lost momentum from 2Q, reverting back to the mild negative region. As expected, investments were one of the factors behind 3Q GDP underperformance, where 8.4%Tue, 20 Dec 2011 15:58:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-12-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-12-15.htmlThe Hungarian government reached an agreement today with the Banking Association to further help FX debtors. The agreement removes a factor pointing towards further possible forint depreciation, and is therefore positive for Hungarian markets. Nevertheless, there are still risks for 2012 in our view. Agreement with banks decrease the possibility of further unilateral steps to help FX mortgage debtors The cabinet today announced that it reached an agreement with the banking sector to furtherThu, 15 Dec 2011 14:52:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-12-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-12-13.htmlThe increase of prices was driven mainly by the excise tax increase, as expected. While the structure of price increases differed somewhat compared to our assumptions, core CPI only grew to 3.1% y/y. We think the MPC will hike by 50bp next week from the current 6.5%, but further rate hikes may be avoided next year. CPI increased to 4.3% y/y from 3.9% in October, m/m was 0.7% The consumer price index came in bang in-line with our forecast, showing 4.3% y/y. The monthly increase of prices arrivedTue, 13 Dec 2011 09:26:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-12-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-12-07.htmlThe release does not change our general view on the industrial sector. The main driver is the slowdown in Hungary’s main export partners’ markets. For November, the yearly index may show a decline, due to the very strong base. Nonetheless, December may show an opposite pattern due to a weak base last year. However, this actually means that the anticipated y/y increase in the last month of this year is not expected to reflect any strong pickup of production. Preliminary October industrial outputWed, 07 Dec 2011 09:48:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-12-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-12-05.htmlKukuriku coalition wins 80 seats in 151-seat Parliament, allowing them to proceed rapidly with forming new government independent of post-election coalitions Center-left coalition to take over after 8 years Unofficial preliminary results confirmed the poll reading, as a leftcenter coalition around SDP won a comfortable majority by taking 80 seats in the 151-seat Parliament. HDZ took 47, down from 65 four years ago and roughly in line with the polls. As newcomers, the Labor party took six MPMon, 05 Dec 2011 12:13:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-12-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-11-29.htmlLooking at current market expectations and the MPC’s comments after the decision, it is hard to believe that today’s move will not be followed by further tightening. We expect another 50bp hike in December. However, assuming some gradual improvement on European markets and a decrease of the uncertainty surrounding the Hungarian economic policy, easing may be possible later in 2012. The extent of the 50bp hike is no surprise after Moody’s decision last week The Central Bank hiked 50bp today, asTue, 29 Nov 2011 16:09:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-11-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-11-15.v02.htmlGDP growth in the 3rd quarter slowed down to 2.9% The Slovak flash GDP growth forecast was published today for 3Q11. The Slovak economy grew by 0.7% q/q, while y/y growth slowed down from 3.5% in 2Q11 to 2.9% in 3Q11. The market expected GDP growth of 3% y/y. The Slovak GDP structure was not yet published. However, we suppose the moderate slowdown of the Slovak economy y/y reflects the general slowdown in the euro zone, and especially that of our main trading partners. The slowdown in EuropeTue, 15 Nov 2011 11:27:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-11-15.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-11-15.htmlWhile today’s data came in basically in-line with our expectations (and beat the more pessimistic consensus), it cannot be expected that the performance recorded today can be maintained in the upcoming quarters. Due to risks stemming from the European debt situation, the weakness of the Hungarian forint and risks of further fiscal austerity, growth may slow down significantly next year. Today’s GDP release came in almost in line with our 1.5% expectation, while beat the consensus of around 1%Tue, 15 Nov 2011 09:31:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-11-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-11-09.htmlThe EUR 742mn release exceeds our EUR 680mn forecast and beats the EUR 541mn consensus as well The Stats Office released a surprisingly good trade balance data today, showing EUR 741.5mn surplus for September, which greatly exceeds the consensus and beats our more optimistic forecast as well. Exports rose 8.1% y/y in September, while imports only grew 5% (in EUR terms). In the first nine months of the year, exports rose 15% in EUR terms, while imports grew only 13%. The release is onlyWed, 09 Nov 2011 10:02:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-11-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-11-08.html+3.9% m/m, +.30% y/y increase in the last month of 3Q11 Preliminary industrial output figures surprised to the upside, showing +3.9% m/m. On a yearly basis, the unadjusted figure came in at +3.0% which matches the wda number. We had anticipated +0.8% y/y growth. In August, the monthly decrease was 1.2%, while the yearly wda index still stood in negative territory (-0.4%). In August, the unadjusted figure showed 4.5% y/y growth, due to that there were 2 more working days vs. the same month ofTue, 08 Nov 2011 12:12:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-11-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-10-25.htmlThe Central Bank decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 6.00% today The base rate stands at 6% since January this year, and today’s decision came as no surprise to us. At the meeting in September, one member already voted for a rate hike, and it can not be ruled out that this time the decision was also not unanimous. Currently, there is a strong duality in the rate outlook. While the real economy would need a lower base rate, due to the still muted domestic demand, financial stabilityTue, 25 Oct 2011 13:20:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-10-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-10-11.htmlCore CPI slowed further to 3.0% y/y from 3.1% in August Today’s CPI release from the Central Statistical Office (CSO) brought a slight positive surprise. The 3.6% y/y figure, which matches the August release, falls short of our estimate of 3.8% y/y. The monthly decrease of 0.1% is also lower than our assumption of +0.1% m/m. In August, the m/m figure came in at -0.1% (core CPI: 3.1% y/y). The September figure was the fourth consecutive month that showed a monthly decline of prices. As for theTue, 11 Oct 2011 13:30:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-10-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-10-10.htmlOn Tuesday, Slovakia will vote on a proposal to raise the guarantees in the EFSF. Slovak approval is needed for a euro rescue fund enhancement that will increase the fund’s effective size, allow it to buy bonds and recapitalize banks. We see four scenarios of possible development, ranked in order by subjective probability: 1. The coalition finds a workable proposal 2. The proposal is rejected, the government falls and the measure is approved in a second vote 3. The proposal is approved thanksMon, 10 Oct 2011 15:29:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-10-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-09-30.htmlNet external financing capacity at EUR 1.1bn, boradly matching our expectations Today’s release on the current account came in at EUR 738mn, or around 0.7% of GDP, somewhat above our expectations of EUR 650mn. The trade balance came in in-line with our expectations, while the balance of services was higher than we had anticipated. The deficit of the income and current transfer balance was mainly in-line with our expectations, the increase of the deficit at this item was expected (due to higherFri, 30 Sep 2011 09:02:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-09-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-09-21.html2Q GDP: Investments remain weak, net exports solid The CBS published the detailed GDP breakdown for 2Q, confirming the +0.8% y/y flash estimate figure. As suggested by short-term indicators, private consumption has been supportive, gaining 0.6% y/y, reverting back to the minor positive region after marginal contraction in 1Q, but generally confirming the still weak private consumption performance. Public spending, on the other hand, showed more robust performance, reverting to the positiveWed, 21 Sep 2011 08:14:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-09-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-09-20.htmlThe policy rate remained at 6% at today’s rate setting meeting At the press converence, Governor Simor told that there was also a proposal to increase the base rate by 25bp, but keeping the rate on hold had an ‘overwhelming majority‘. Regarding the recent proposal of the govenrment that allows FX mortgage debtors to pre-pay their loans at a significant discount compared to current market rates, Simor said that this might cause significant losses for the banking sector and may curb lending.Tue, 20 Sep 2011 15:59:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-09-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-08-26.htmlGDP growth back to positive territory, but falls short of expectations The CBS published its 2Q GDP flash estimate, according to which the economy expanded 0.8% y/y in 2Q, a notch below our 1.0% estimate and the market’s 1.1% expectation. While the detailed breakdown will be published later in September, the monthly-frequency indicators point to a private consumption recovery to the minor positive region. A more positive tone in the trade balance figures would also support the net exportsFri, 26 Aug 2011 11:36:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-08-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-08-16.v02.htmlGDP growth slowed down to 3.3% y/y in 2Q Slovak economy rose by 0.9% q/q in 2Q11. The annual growth slowed down somewhat from 3.5% y/y in 1Q11 to 3.3% y/y in 2Q11. Our latest estimate, which already took into the account a slower late 2Q in industry, stood at 3.5%, while the market consensus was a touch lower at 3.4%. The GDP structure is unavailable yet. The recovery of the European economy has slowed down recently, which also means lower demand for Slovak industrial goods. For example,Tue, 16 Aug 2011 09:36:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-08-16.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-08-16.html1.5% y/y and 0.0% q/q figures are strong negative surprise vs. our forecast According to the preliminary figures reported by the Central Statistical Office (CSO) today, the economy stagnated in the second quarter of this year compared to 1Q11. In the first three months of the year, the economy still expanded 0.3% q/q (revised down from the 0.7% figure posted earlier). The yearly growth stood at 1.5%, while it was still 2.4% in 1Q11. The detailed GDP report is expected to be released onTue, 16 Aug 2011 09:34:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-08-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-08-05.htmlAgain a negative surprise in the industry, despite favorable factory orders figures released yesterday in Germany Preliminary industrial output figures surprised to the downside, showing 1.0% y/y growth in working day adjusted terms (the unadjusted figure showed a contraction of 1.4% in yearly terms). The yearly wda growth falls short of our 5.9% forecast. The release follows a 2.6% y/y wda growth for May. On a monthly basis, industry fell by 0.6%, after the drop of 0.7% posted for May. TheFri, 05 Aug 2011 10:10:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-08-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-07-12.htmlHungary: CPI again below forecasts in June at 3.5% y/y (-0.2% m/m) Release was better than expected again, due to lower food price increase The Central Statistical Office (CSO) released June inflation figures this morning, which came in at 3.5% y/y, below our 3.8% estimate and the market consensus of around 3.8-3.9%. In May, the yearly index still stood at 3.9%. The monthly reading showed a decline of 0.2%, while we forecasted growth of 0.2%. With regards to the monthly index, the CSOTue, 12 Jul 2011 09:01:12 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-07-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-06-30.htmlSurplus slightly exceeds our EUR 750mn forecast Data from the central bank showed today in the morning that the current account surplus for 1Q11 arrived at EUR 787mn, somewhat above our EUR 750mn forecast, but falling short of the EUR 815mn market consensus. In the meantime, 4Q10 was revised down to EUR 360mn from EUR 366mn. In seasonally-adjusted terms, the surplus was EUR 802mn, after the 4Q10 figure of EUR 576mn. The increase of the surplus in the first quarter is due to the stronglyThu, 30 Jun 2011 09:12:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-06-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-06-20.htmlAs expected, the Central Bank decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 6.00% today. At the press conference, the Governor of the Central Bank said that the decision was unanimous to keep the policy rate unchanged. As for the interest rate outlook, the Governor said that the inflation rate could be close to the 3% target at the end of 2012, but for that, the Central Bank needs ‘to keep interest rates at current levels for a prolonged period‘. The Governor mentioned three risk scenarios:Mon, 20 Jun 2011 16:32:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-06-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-06-07.htmlHighlights The data is a surprise to the downside, as it falls short of our forecast of 11.1% y/y. However, it is mostly in line with market expectations. Industrial orders in March still performed well (new orders increased 21% y/y, while total orders were up 26% y/y). However, today’s data is in conjunction with the Czech release on industrial production yesterday, which also came in well below expectations. However, we had already earlier anticipated that the growth figures should return toTue, 07 Jun 2011 09:21:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-06-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-06-06.htmlFitch improved the outlook of Hungary’s credit rating from negative to stable. In the meantime, the outlook for the rating was left unchanged at ’BBB-’. The rating agency said that the positive revision of the outlook reflects the measures outlined in the government’s convergence program and the increased ’confidence that the budget deficit will be reduced to below 3% of GDP by 2012’. Fitch said the measures, if implemented, would largely offset the impact of permanent tax cuts which were onlyMon, 06 Jun 2011 19:34:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-06-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-05-16.htmlHungary: Base rate left unchanged at 6.00% As expected, the Central Bank decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 6.00% today. At the press conference, Governor Simor said that the MPC discussed only to keep the base rate on hold. According to Simor, while processed food price increases may feed through to the core inflation figure more quickly, the measures in the convergence program (beyond the so-called ‘Széll Kálmán’ fiscal adjustment plan) could weigh on domestic consumption longer.Mon, 16 May 2011 16:38:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-05-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-04-01.html4Q C/A outperformed expectations - FY10 C/A deficit at 1.4% of GDP The 4Q BoP figures brought some favorable developments, as CAD landed at EUR 1.05bn, a robust 74% drop on the annual level. The merchandise account performed in line with the trade balance figures, with only marginally better performance than we anticipated. Exports were up a strong 26% y/y, while imports growth remained humble at 4%. Services were also supportive, driven by 3% y/y higher inflows, resulting in a better thanFri, 01 Apr 2011 08:49:35 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-04-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-03-31.htmlThe CBS today published a detailed 4Q GDP breakdown, revising the headline GDP figure marginally from -0.7% y/y to -0.6% y/y. Additionally, the CBS also revised previous quarterly data, given some methodology adjustments. The 1H10 figures were thus revised by 0.2pp, up from -2.5% to -2.3%, while the 3Q figures also inched up to +0.3% y/y (vs. 0.2% reported previously), bringing the FY10 figure to -1.2% (vs. -1.4% flash estimate). Returning to the 4Q figures, private consumption posted 1.2%Thu, 31 Mar 2011 12:33:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-03-31.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-03-28.htmlAs expected, the Central Bank decided to leave rates unchanged at 6.00% today. On 1 March, mandate of four members expired and the government nominated the new members earlier this month. Only three of the four new members took part at today’s meeting, so there were 6 members present today. At the conference, Governor Simor said that the MPC only discussed keeping the base rate on hold. He also added that the current baseline scenario is holding the current policy rate for a longer period.Mon, 28 Mar 2011 14:24:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-03-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-03-08.htmlThe figure considerably beats the consensus and even our more optimistic forecast Preliminary industrial output figures surprised to the upside by showing a 13.6% y/y growth in unadjusted, and 10.9% in working-day adjusted terms. We expected a 10.5% yearly growth, while the consensus stood at 7.7%. The monthly growth shows a spectacular, 15.5% increase. The data comes after the significant monthly drop in December (-13.3% m/m). Detailed data are not yet available; the Central StatisticalTue, 08 Mar 2011 13:30:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-03-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-03-01.htmlSummary: The Hungarian government today disclosed some details of the fiscal package that is vital to closing the wide budget gap that is expected to surface fully in 2013, if no changes are implemented. The release still does not contain some details regarding the exact effect of several measures. However, EconMin Matolcsy disclosed the overall effect of the plan (the so-called Kálmán Széll plan). The improvement in the budget balance is expected to be HUF 550bn in  2012 and HUF 900bn inTue, 01 Mar 2011 14:28:08 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-03-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-02-22.htmlAfter 75bp tightening since November, the Central Bank today decided to leave rates unchanged at 6.00%, as expected. Governor Simor indicated at the press conference that there were two options (hold, 25bp cut) on the table, and keeping the base rate unchanged had an overwhelming majority. A key risk according to the Governor is that inflation expectations are not properly anchored around the 3% target. He added that CPI expectations were a key factor in the recent tightening steps, and thatTue, 22 Feb 2011 14:17:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-02-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-02-08.htmlAnnual growth at 8.5% in unadjusted terms, 6% working-day adjusted Preliminary Hungarian industrial production figures show 8.5% yearly growth, well below our 18.2% forecast and falling significantly short of the consensus forecast (17.5%) as well. The November figure was +14.7% y/y and +4.3% m/m. The 2010 average increase was 10.5%. Detailed data is not available yet – it will only be disclosed on February 15. According to a quick comment from the Statistical Office, the fall affected allTue, 08 Feb 2011 12:57:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2011-02-08.html