http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-07-01.htmlThe 1Q current account deficit amounted to EUR 2,488mn, widening on an annual basis by 23% and coming in slightly above our expectation (EUR 2.4bn). As the trade balance suggested, the pressure came from the merchandise account, as the deficit hit a new high of EUR 2.55bn, thus increasing by 18.2% y/y. Exports recorded only +8.7% y/y in nominal terms, while imports added 13.6% y/y. The service account was practically flat y/y, posting a EUR 100mn surplus. As expected, it failed to have anTue, 01 Jul 2008 13:03:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-07-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-06-24.htmlNBS left rates on hold, waits for ECB The Slovak central bank kept interest rates on hold. The 2W repo rate stays at 4.25%, as was widely expected. At the same time, the O/N rates were kept at 2.25/5.75%. NBS is currently in a waiting mode, as the ECB is likely to hike its base rate to 4.25%, which would make it aligned with the NBS policy rate. General market consensus is that the ECB will hike rates by 25bp at the beginning of July to combat inflation. After that, Erste Bank expects no moreTue, 24 Jun 2008 15:17:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-06-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-06-19.htmlAccording to the CSO, gross average wages in the economy increased by 10.6% y/y in April (after 9.9% y/y, seen in March), within which the private sector gross wage growth was 10% y/y, still seen as high. Furthermore, regular (ex bonuses) private sector gross wage growth - which is monitored closely by the central bank – accelerated to 9.1% y/y (from 7.7% y/y, published for March), indicating still uncomfortably high wage outflow in the sector. According to the CSO, there were three extraThu, 19 Jun 2008 08:24:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-06-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-06-16.html· May CPI figures surprised on the upside, recording a robust 1.1% m/m increase, which brought the annual figure back to 6+% territory. The structure of the inflation figures remains unchanged. Food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed substantially, accelerating 1.5% m/m. Transportation prices, driven by gasoline price hikes (+5.7% m/m), added a further 2.7% m/m. Finally, clothing and footwear prices remained on their seasonal upward trajectory, contributing an additional 2.2% m/m. · TheMon, 16 Jun 2008 07:21:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-06-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-06-11.htmlConsumer prices rose 1.1% m/m in May, accelerating the 12-month CPI inflation rate to 7% (from 6.6% published for April). Our expectation was 6.7% y/y, while estimations of analyst fluctuated in the range of 6.6-6.8% y/y. Thus, the actual figures came as a big negative surprise. We did not estimate well the monthly increase in food prices, which was 1.9% in May, instead of our estimation of just 1.5% m/m. Prices of services surpised on the upside as well, rising by 0.6% m/m. Other driversWed, 11 Jun 2008 08:24:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-06-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-06-03.htmlGDP in 1Q increased by 8.7% thanks to consumption and investments The Slovak Statistical Office confirmed 1Q08 real GDP growth at 8.7% y/y , at the level of its earlier flash estimate. The economic growth was driven mainly by domestic demand, more specifically surging household consumption and stock building . Indeed, household sector was surprisingly strong. Private consumption increased by 8.4% y/y, faster than our expectations at 6% y/y and 5.9% y/y seen in the final quarter of 2007. HigherTue, 03 Jun 2008 15:22:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-06-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-05-26.htmlToday, the central bank hiked the base rate by 25bp, to 8.50%, in line with the market consensus. The decision did not come as surprise, but the statement of the council, however, proved to be more hawkish than expected earlier. The point is that the statement did not suggest at all that the current rate hiking cycle would come to an end sooner or later. Instead, by saying that “that there is significant upside risks in the time horizon relevant to monetary policy.....and “the Monetary CouncilMon, 26 May 2008 14:27:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-05-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-05-13.v02.htmlDS-led pro-EU coalition takes majority of votes · The pro-European coalition gathered around President’s Tadic Democratic Party (DS) received a strong boost from the electorate, as, according to the preliminary results from CeSID (Center for Free Elections and Democracy), it won 38.7% of votes, considerably more than the rival Serbian Radical Party (SRS), which accounted for 29.1% of the votes. The Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) and New Serbia (NS) coalition headed by PM Kostunica tookTue, 13 May 2008 10:05:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-05-13.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-05-13.htmlInflation increased to 4.3% against expected moderation Consumer inflation increased from an annual rate of 4.2% in March to 4.3% in April , against average market expectations for stagnation at 4.2% and our more optimistic forecast of moderation to 4.1%. On the month, the headline CPI index rose by 0.3%, largely owing to the food price increase. The prices of food rose by 1.2% m/m, well above the usual seasonal pattern (e.g. bread and cereals, meat, and fruits). Vegetables increased by 2.9%Tue, 13 May 2008 08:54:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-05-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-04-11.v02.htmlConsumer prices rose 0.6% m/m in March. The 12-month inflation rate slowed to 6.7% (from 6.9% published for February). The y/y figure proved to be slightly lower than my estimation of 6.9% and was in line with the market consensus. The positive surpise came from food prices, rising by just 0.4% m/m in March. Thus, the main drivers of the March inflation were prices of fuel and clothes, rising by 3.3% m/m and 2.8% m/m, respectively. The latter is due to the usual seasonality in Hungary. PricesFri, 11 Apr 2008 10:14:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-04-11.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-04-11.html1. CPI inflation reached 0.3% m/m in March, putting the annual growth to 4.2% up from 4.0% in February. That matched our forecasts and was a notch above the market consensus at 4.1%. 2. The structure of inflation was broadly in line with our expectations – the main driver were heat prices (which increased by 1.3% m/m as of March) and food prices, which rose by 0.3% m/m, a bit more than we assumed. Imputed rents increased in line with our forecast by 0.7% m/m. 3. The food prices continue toFri, 11 Apr 2008 09:22:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-04-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-04-02.html· The 4Q current account figures came in broadly in line with expectations, posting a slightly higher than expected deficit of EUR 1.89bn. As one could have expected, the merchandise account continued to burden the current account performance. Thus, given the higher energy prices and EU slowdown, the widening of the merchandise account deficit in 4Q07 (by 21.4% y/y) came as no surprise. Goods exports grew just 4.1% y/y, while imports posted a solid 12% y/y increase. The service accountWed, 02 Apr 2008 07:43:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-04-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-03-31.htmlThe central bank has published C/A balance figures this morning. The C/A deficit amounted to EUR 1.113bn in October-December 2007 (our expectation was EUR 1.25bn), taking the cumulative C/A deficit for FY 2007 to EUR 5.060bn (5% of GDP). At the same time, the 2006 C/A deficit was revised downwards to 6.1% of GDP, from 6.5% of GDP. To sum up it, the year 2007 brought significant improvement in the external economic balance situation, thanks to the favorable processes on the trade balance. TheMon, 31 Mar 2008 08:53:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-03-31.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-03-26.htmlInterest rates remain on hold, as expected Slovak central bank left policy interest rates intact on its meeting today, in line with the widespread expectations of the market. The 2W repo rate stays at 4.25%, while O/N rates remain at 2.25/5.75%. Press conference and comments will be released at 13:00 CET. Without the 2009 euro adoption plan, inflation acceleration could have warranted an interest rates hike (although main sources of the pick-up in price growth in recent months were foodWed, 26 Mar 2008 10:42:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-03-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-03-19.htmlAccording to the CSO, gross average wages in the economy dropped 1.5 y/y in January 2008, while net wages decreased by 0.2% y/y. However, what at first sights seems extremely favorable from the point of view of the inflation development hides a serious one-off distorting effect. Looking at the details of the figure, the point is that in the public sector, gross wages dropped 14.6% y/y in January. This sharp drop can be explained by the fact that in the public sector January wages do notWed, 19 Mar 2008 16:42:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-03-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-03-17.htmlStandard & Poor's credit rating agency unexpectedly revised its outlook on Hungary sovereign credit ratings to negative from stable, due to the weakening perspective for sustained consolidation of public finances. At the same time the agency affirmed Hungary's 'BBB+' long-term and 'A-2' short-term sovereign credit ratings. They said that risks for the dilution of fiscal reforms increased and with the increasing cost of external borrowing this may interrupt Hungary's progress in reducingMon, 17 Mar 2008 12:06:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-03-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-03-13.htmlCPI inflation reached 0.4% m/m in February, which means it edged up to 4.0% y/y after 3.8% y/y a month earlier. The figure was above our (3.8%) and market expectations (3.9%). The main source of upward surprise was the growth of imputed rents by 3.9% on a monthly basis. However, these are not included within the consumer basket of the HICP inflation and hence do not affect it.  The food prices grew only slightly stronger than we estimated, leaving the question, whether recent excessiveThu, 13 Mar 2008 14:57:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-03-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-03-11.v02.htmlConsumer prices rose 1.1% m/m in February. The 12-month inflation rate slowed to 6.9% (from 7.1% published for January). The y/y figure proved to be a bit lower than both our estimation and the market consensus of 7%. The structure of the February index more or less met expectations. Due the accounting for gas (15.4% m/m) and electricity price (9.8% m/m) increases in the statistics, household energy prices rose 8.2 m/m. It’s seems favorable, however, that price increasing pressure in theTue, 11 Mar 2008 16:16:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-03-11.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-03-11.html· The ruling coalition failed to reach consensus over the Kosovo issue, resulting in a government collapse and early elections scheduled for May to resolve the political crisis. The crisis arose due to the lack of a common view on whether Serbia should sign the Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU. PM Kostunica (DSS) opposed signing the agreement and insisted on an EU declaration over Serbia’s territorial integrity including Kosovo, while President Tadic (DS) is certain that theTue, 11 Mar 2008 09:11:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-03-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-03-04.html- The Slovak Statistical Office upped 4Q07 real GDP estimate to 14.3% y/y, from flash estimate of 14.1% y/y . - As was indicated earlier, pre-stocking of cigarettes ahead of January excise tax hike contributed to the growth significantly (by about 4.5 percentage points). - Apart from cigarettes, the structure was balanced . Household consumption growth slowed down in line with our expectations to 5.9% y/y from 8.0% seen in 3Q07, while real wage growth (coming at 4.5% y/y) was significantlyTue, 04 Mar 2008 14:45:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-03-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-02-18.html· January brought a 0.7% m/m pick-up of consumer prices, resulting in a 6.2% y/y rate, thus meeting our expectations (6.1% y/y). As expected, food and beverages prices (+2.1% m/m) contributed heavily to the headline figure. On top of that, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel prices rose by 2.4% m/m, due to hikes in some public utilities. On the other hand, clothes and footwear prices declined by 7.5% m/m, due to a seasonal sales effect, thus easing the pressure to some extent. · InMon, 18 Feb 2008 15:05:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-02-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-02-14.v02.html• Consumer prices rose 1% m/m in January 2008, while the 12-month inflation rate slowed to 7.1% (from 7.4% published for December). The y/y figure proved to be a bit higher than my expectation of 7%, while it was in line with the market consensus. • On the one hand, the main driver of the inflation in January remained foodstuffs, further rising by 1.9% m/m. On the other hand, prices of services rose 1.7% on monthly level, driven by sharp increases in admindistrative prices (public transport,Thu, 14 Feb 2008 10:02:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-02-14.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-02-14.html- According to a flash estimate of the Stats Office, real GDP growth reached strong 14.1% y/y in the final quarter of 2007, outpacing our and market’s average estimate at 9.1% and 8.8%, respectively. Upward surprise was caused by the decision of the Statistical Office to include one-off excise tax intakes from cigarettes to the final quarter of 2007 . The prices of cigarettes increased as of January 2008 (due to EU-legislative) by 18%, which lead to a prestocking of the distribution companiesThu, 14 Feb 2008 09:44:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-02-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-02-11.html# Consumer inflation increased above expectations to 3.8% y/y # HICP should increase in lesser extent to 3.1% y/y, ... # ... Maastricht limit will be met comfortably # Foreing trade with bigger than expected deficit in December,... # ... nevertheless, annual balance improved significantly # Central bank to keep interest rates unchangedMon, 11 Feb 2008 11:12:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-02-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-01-14.html· December inflation came in line with our forecasts at 0.3% on the month and 3.4% on the year, representing an increase from 3.1% in November. Market expected a notch lower inflation at 3.3%. · Structure also did not surprise this time. The monthly increase owed to higher prices of food, fuels and imputed rents. · After this figure, we stick to our former December HICP estimate at 0.3% m/m and 2.5% y/y. The Maastricht criterion will be met almost for sure in December and with a substantialMon, 14 Jan 2008 09:25:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-01-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2007-12-28.html· 3Q GDP figures posted 5.1% increased, which was slightly below our expectations. Nevertheless, domestic demand remained strong, supported by ongoing strong consumption momentum. Hence, private consumption increased 6.2% y/y in real terms, which was expected by the monthly frequency retail trade figures. · Fixed capital formation was in line with the expectations, as we expected that investment activity would continue to moderate as was seen in the 2Q supported by construction activityFri, 28 Dec 2007 14:58:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2007-12-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2007-12-18.htmlThe Bank Board keeps the interest rates steady as expected The central bank kept interest rates unchanged , in line with the market and our expectations. The key 2W repo rate remains at 4.25%, while the O/N corridor stays at 2.25%/5.75%. Comments of the CB officials as well as a voting ratio (if there was any proposal to change the interest rates) will be known later in the day. Over the past month, the economic picture did not change a lot. True, inflation in November outpaced market and theTue, 18 Dec 2007 12:33:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2007-12-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2007-12-11.v02.htmlHungary: CPI inflation stood at 7.1% y/y in November Consumer prices rose 0.6% m/m in November. The 12-month inflation rate further accelerated to 7.1% (from 6.7% published for October). The actual y/y figure proved to be higher than my expectation of 6.9%, but was in line with the market consensus. Food prices and fuel prices were again to blame for the acceleration of the yearly index. Food prices rose 1.4 m/m, due to sharp increases in prices of cooking oil, flour and cheese. Fuel pricesTue, 11 Dec 2007 12:32:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2007-12-11.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2007-12-11.htmlInflation slightly declined to 3.1% in November as expected # Inflation slowed down in November to 3.1% y/y down from 3.3% in October # November HICP could reach 2.3% y/y versus our previous expectations of 2.2% # Demand inflation pressures slightly increased # We expect central bank to stay on holdTue, 11 Dec 2007 12:26:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2007-12-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2007-09-07.htmlFinance Ministry published a budget deficit of HUF 69.1bn for August 2007 • The Finance Ministry published a budget deficit of HUF 69.1bn for August 2007, taking the cumulative budget deficit for the first eight months of the year to HUF 982.2bn, 64.2% of the ministry’s full-year CF deficit forecast. • The August deficit proved to be lower than the ministry’s earlier monthly forecast of a deficit of HUF 87.5bn. • The details of the July figures will be available on September 18. • Another moreFri, 07 Sep 2007 15:00:12 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2007-09-07.html