http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-11-09.htmlOn monthly basis, industrial production increased markedly in September Industrial production again surprised on the upside in September, as it fell only by 5.2% y/y (after a revised -6.3% y/y in August). The market expected around -10% y/y, we forecasted -13% y/y. After seasonal adjustment, the industrial production grew by 4.6% m/m (Slovak Statistical Office published seasonally adjusted figures for the first time), which is even more impressive after monthly growth by 5.5% a month ago. WeMon, 09 Nov 2009 10:40:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-11-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-10-02.htmlS&P revises the outlook of Hungary to stable from negative This afternoon, S&P credit rating agency announced that they revised the outlook of Hungary to stable from negative. At the same time they affirmed Hungary's current rating at BBB-. According to the agency, the outlook revision reflects their view that sustained consolidation efforts will contain the deterioration in the Hungarian government deficit, despite the downside pressures on the economy. The gradual normalization ofFri, 02 Oct 2009 12:47:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-10-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-09-30.htmlC/A balance showed a surplus of EUR 476mn in 2Q09 The C/A balance showed a surplus of EUR 476mn in 2Q09, showing even bigger than expected adjustment in the country’s economic balance situation. We had expected a deficit of EUR 350mn for 2Q09. Please note that Hungary hasn’t had a surplus in the current account since Q3-Q4 1995. The 1Q C/A deficit was revised slightly downwards (from EUR 591mn to EUR 562mn). In addition, mainly based on some methodological changes, the FY2008 C/A deficit wasWed, 30 Sep 2009 09:27:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-09-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-09-15.htmlCPI pressures remained subdued in August CPI inflation continued to perform under downward pressure, recording a 0.1% m/m decline and posting 1.5% on the annual level. Weak pressures on the monthly level came as a surprise, as the VAT increase took effect in August (VAT was increased as an anti-recession measure by 1pp, to 23%, effective from the beginning of August), though not showing up in the figures. Food, beverages and tobacco products were down 0.2% m/m, while clothing and footwearTue, 15 Sep 2009 14:03:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-09-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-09-11.htmlAccording to statements made at today’s meeting of the Croatian and Slovenian PMs (Jadranka Kosor and Borut Pahor, respectively), Slovenia is ready to unblock Croatia’s negotiation process and allow the opening of the remaining chapters. The two countries seem to have finally reached an understanding on their border dispute and steps toward its resolution. This is a positive event, as it suggests that Croatia remains on track for EU membership and should boost efforts to accelerate reforms andFri, 11 Sep 2009 14:58:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-09-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-09-02.htmlHousehold consumption increased in 2Q09, inventory stocks were depleted further The Statistical Office confirmed its flash estimate of annual GDP at -5.3% in 2Q09. On the quarterly seasonally adjusted basis, GDP increased by 2.2%. Surprisingly, detailed structure revealed increase in household consumption (by 0.7% y/y after -1.2% in 1Q09), despite further increase in the unemployment rate. Economy was also supported by hefty government spending (5.9% y/y). On the other hand, investmentsWed, 02 Sep 2009 14:32:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-09-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-08-24.v02.htmlCB cut the base rate by 50bp to 8% After the bigger than expected, 100bp reduction in the base carried out in July, at its today’s rate setting meeting, the monetary council cut the base rate by 50bp, to 8%. The decision did not come as a surprise, being in line with both our expectation and the market consensus. The statement of the monetary council contained not much news. According to the council, the economic growth is expected to resume in 2010. The inflation is likely to rise above theMon, 24 Aug 2009 15:34:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-08-24.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-08-24.htmlAt its today’s rate setting meeting, the monetary council cut the base rate by 50bp, to 8%, in line with our expectation and the market consensus. As usual, the statement of the council on the decision will be available and the governor’s press conference will start at 14.30.Mon, 24 Aug 2009 12:16:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-08-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-08-13.htmlAnnual contraction of real GDP moderated to 5.3% Real GDP contracted by 5.3% y/y in 2q09 according to the flash estimate of the Statistical Office. This means slight improvement from -5.6% seen in 1q09. The figure was better than we and the market expected (our call: -6.3%, market's average was -6.0%). The Statistical Office also released (for the first time) quarterly seasonally adjusted GDP change, showing stronger-than-expected quarterly growth of 2.2%. We read this as a correction after aThu, 13 Aug 2009 10:46:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-08-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-07-08.htmlIndustrial production declined by 24% y/y, slightly more than expected Industrial production fell in May by 23.9% y/y, which is almost unchanged level from -24.7% seen in April. We expected smaller decline at 21%, while market's median stood at 20% (according to Reuters agency). The structure revealed that manufacturing production (industrial production less mining and energy) indeed slightly improved in May as was expected, when it declined by 27% y/y after falling by 29% in April.Wed, 08 Jul 2009 10:03:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-07-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-07-01.htmlThe 1Q C/A deficit landed in the expected region at EUR 1.8bn, declining a robust 29% y/y and bringing the 4Q MA current account deficit down from 9.4% in 4Q08 to 8% in 1Q09. As the trade balance figures suggested, the adjustment occurred, given the narrowing of the merchandise account deficit by 33% y/y to EUR 1.7bn. Imports were heavily hit by depleting domestic demand (-24% y/y), while exports performed somewhat better (-14% y/y). The service account, of secondary importance in 1Q, recordedWed, 01 Jul 2009 15:02:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-07-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-06-29.html1Q GDP contraction somewhat exceeded our expectations, landing at -6.7% y/y and clearly confirming the strong economic downturn. Private consumption recorded a 9.9% y/y decline, which was roughly suggested by retail trade figures and was in line with our expectations. Investment activity met our expectations quite well, declining a robust 12.4% y/y. Overall, 1Q confirmed that domestic demand took a strong hit. Along with that, the main downside surprise compared to our forecast (ESBe 5.5% y/y)Mon, 29 Jun 2009 11:10:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-06-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-06-09.htmlGDP fell 6.7% y/y in 1Q09, trade surplus amounted to EUR 429.7mn in April The CSO revised its flash GDP estimate of -6.4% y/y for 1Q09 down to -6.7% y/y. Taking the calendar effect into consideration, the economy dropped by 6.1% y/y in January-March. Compared to the previous quarter, GDP declined by 2.5%. The breakdown of the supply-side figures showed deep recession in all sectors of the economy. The performance of industry dropped 17.6% y/y, within which the slump in processing industry wasTue, 09 Jun 2009 10:57:22 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-06-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-06-03.htmlEconomy contracted by 5.6% in 1Q09 largely due to investments and stock adjustment The Statistical Office slightly revised its estimate of real GDP decline in 1Q09 downwards from preliminary - 5.4% y/y to -5.6% y/y. The structure of GDP did not look that scary as the headline figure. Lower investment inventories were the main culprit behind the decline (contributed around 3pp to the y/y decline). Industrial factories, facing sharp drop in foreign demand at the end of 2008 were adjusting theWed, 03 Jun 2009 14:18:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-06-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-05-18.html2009 budget deficit target can be raised to 3.9% of GDP It has just been announced by the Finance Minister Péter Oszkó at a press conference that the IMF and the EU agree that the 2009 budget deficit target of no higher than 3% of GDP can be raised to 3.9% of GDP. The announcement did not come as a big surprise, because rumors that that the strong recession will prompt both the IMF and the EU to let Hungary raise the budget deficit above 3% of GDP have emerged many times. In 2010, the deficitMon, 18 May 2009 13:27:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-05-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-05-15.v02.htmlAccording to the CSO’s flash estimate, GDP fell 6.4% y/y in 1Q09, slightly exceeding our expectation of -6% y/y. Taking the calendar effect into consideration, the economy dropped by 5.8% y/y in January-March. Compared to the previous quarter, GDP fell 2.3%. The figures show that recession is strongly biting in Hungary, however, taking the bigger than expected GDP drop in Germany into consideration, the Hungarian 1Q figures could rather be seen as a positive surprise. Details of the figureFri, 15 May 2009 10:18:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-05-15.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-05-15.htmlGDP fell by surprising 5.4% y/y Today, the Slovak Statistical Office released a flash GDP estimate for the 1Q09. The real GDP contracted by 5.4% y/y, well below our and market expectations . We expected quarterly seasonally adjusted decline to be broadly in line with the development in Euro area (i.e. we assumed decline at around 3% q/q), however, decline after seasonal (and cigarettes pre-stocking) adjustment was likely more than double, assuming that the 4Q growth at 2.5% y/y was not revisedFri, 15 May 2009 10:14:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-05-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-05-13.htmlInflation slowed down to 2.3% Slovak consumer prices declined in April by 0.1% m/m and the annual CPI inflation slowed down from 2.6% in March to 2.3% in April . The market expected a notch higher inflation at 2.4%, our estimate was even higher at 2.6% y/y. The main difference to our forecasts was the food prices, which went down for the third month in a row . They declined by 1% m/m. In this time of the year, the seasonal pattern usually speaks in favour of price growth but it seems that aWed, 13 May 2009 09:36:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-05-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-04-02.htmlThe current account deficit in 4Q08 amounted to EUR 1.940mn, hence practically unchanged with respect to 4Q07 and broadly matching our expectations. Pressures on the merchandise account eased, as the deficit increased only 1.1% y/y (EUR 2.5bn), broadly in line with the trade balance figures, as exports declined by 5.3% y/y and imports fell 2.1% y/y. The service account performed better than expected, as the surplus increased by 40% y/y (EUR 470mn), supported by stronger inflows (+14.8% y/y)Thu, 02 Apr 2009 08:42:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-04-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-04-01.htmlHighlights Budget rebalance to set the ground for Eurobond issue S&P lowered local currency rating to ‘BBB’ outlook remains negative Money market pressures eased FX market stabilized in March GDP growth slowed to 0.2% y/y in 4Q 1Q monthly frequency indicators looking poor Inflation accelerated to 4.2% in February Budget rebalance: Cuts on expenditure side, deficit target revised to 1.6% of GDP Last week, the first budget rebalance was presented to the public, the first step towardWed, 01 Apr 2009 12:54:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-04-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-03-31.htmlMoody's downgraded Hungary from A3 to Baa1 After the S&P downgrading seen yesterday, today another credit rating agency, the Moody's announced that they cut Hungary's current rating to 'Baa1' from ‘A3’. The outlook of the new rating is negative. According to the agency, the actions reflect the impact of the current economic crisis on the Hungarian government's financial strength. „When the global economic crisis set in, the Hungarian economy was already in a weak position relative to itsTue, 31 Mar 2009 11:47:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-03-31.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-03-30.htmlS&P downgraded Hungary from BBB to BBB This afternoon, S&P credit rating agency announced that they cut Hungary's current rating to 'BBB-' from BBB. In addition, the rating outlook will be negative. According to the agency, the downgrade moving reflects the ongoing deterioration in the key Hungarian economic and fiscal indicators. Pressure on public finances continues to mount as revenues fall short, the government debt ratio mounts and the risk of financial sector contingentMon, 30 Mar 2009 16:08:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-03-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-03-23.v02.htmlCentral bank kept the base rate on hold (9.50%) The central bank kept the base rate on hold (9.50%) at its today’s rate setting meeting. The decision did not come as a surprise. The forint exchange rate and the financial stability have been in the focus of the statement, while the tone of it has not really changed. According to the council, further weakening of the forint exchange rate could have a harmful effect on the capital position of the domestic financial intermediary system in theMon, 23 Mar 2009 14:51:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-03-23.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-03-23.htmlOn Saturday, on the annual meeting of the Socialist Party, the Prime Minister Mr. Gyurcsány resigned from his position, by saying that he is ready to stand aside and hand over crisis management to a new government. Gyurcsány does not plan to give up his political carrier, as he will remain the president of the Hungarian Socialist Party. Gyurcsány intends to initiate a motion of no confidence vote in the Parliament on April 6. The Socialist Party has 189 seats in Parliament, enough to putMon, 23 Mar 2009 13:20:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-03-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-03-17.htmlS&P lowered local currency rating from 'BBB+' to 'BBB' -Standard & Poor's lowered its long-term local currency sovereign rating to 'BBB' from 'BBB+', while the longterm foreign currency rating was affirmed at 'BBB+' and the outlook remained unchanged at 'negative'. -The main rationale behind the downgrade was the intensified external pressure and diminishing economic policy options. Additionally, the exchange rate regime and lack of fiscal policy flexibility were also noted in theTue, 17 Mar 2009 11:28:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-03-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-03-05.htmlEconomic growth at 2.5% in 4Q08 was driven by household consumption - The Statistical Office slightly revised its estimate of real GDP growth in 4Q08 from previous 2.7% down to 2.5% y/y. Also, the third quarter growth was revised down to 6.6% from previously reported 7.0% y/y. - As expected, the key GDP driver was household consumption (increasing by real 4.7% y/y) despite the fact that real wages declined by 0.2% y/y. Contradictory to the unemployment rate calculated monthly by LabourThu, 05 Mar 2009 14:47:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-03-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-03-02.htmlFitch cut Hungary’s current rating outlook from stable to negative This afternoon, the Fitch credit rating agency announced that they cut Hungary's current rating outlook to negative from stable. However, they left the foreign currency rating unchanged at BBB. According to the agency: “the negative outlook reflects the continued deterioration in Hungarian and European economic prospects, which combined with on-going pressure on Hungary's balance of payments and currency, increase the risk thatMon, 02 Mar 2009 17:42:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-03-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-02-23.htmlCentral bank kept the base rate on hold (9.50%) As expected, the central bank kept the base rate on hold (9.50%) at its today’s rate setting meeting. The statement of the council will be available at 14.30.Mon, 23 Feb 2009 14:56:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-02-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-02-13.htmlAccording to the CSO’s flash estimate, GDP declined 2% y/y in the last quarter of 2008 - after the 0.8% y/y increase seen in 3Q08. Taking the calendar effect into consideration, the economy dropped by 2.1% y/y in October-December. Compared to the previous quarter, GDP dropped 1%. As the q/q indicator was also negative in the third quarter (- 0.5%), a technical recession has arrived, as two quarters declined in a row. In FY2008, GDP rose just a tiny 0.6% y/y. The CSO indicated that industrialFri, 13 Feb 2009 15:34:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-02-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-02-11.htmlInflation slowed down in January, euro adoption with no significant impact - In January, prices grew by 0.7% in a month-to-month comparison and above our 0.5% estimate. But since the price growth was lower compared to last year, the annual inflation slowed down to 3.7% y/y (we expected 3.5% y/y growth, the average market forecast was 0.1pp higher) from 4.4% y/y in December. - The biggest surprise for us the hike of electricity price by more than 14% m/m, even though previous media reportsWed, 11 Feb 2009 11:23:46 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-02-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-01-19.htmlCentral bank cut the base rate by 50bp to 9.50% As expected, the central bank cut the base rate by 50bp to 9.50% at its today’s rate setting meeting. The statement of the council indicated that the inflation would remain well below the mid-term target and the prospects of the real economy had further deteriorated. The decline in the industrial output was bigger than expected, suggesting weaker external demand. The deeper than expected recession could lead to even lower inflation rate. ApartMon, 19 Jan 2009 14:29:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-01-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-01-15.htmlCPI further slowed to 3.5% y/y in December Consumer prices declined 0.3% m/m in December. Thus, the 12-month inflation rate further slowed to 3.5% (from the 4.2% published for November). The 2008 annual average inflation rate was 6.1%. The December actual figure did not come as surprise, meeting market expectations. As expected, the main driver of the December slowdown was the 9.4 m/m decline in fuel prices, which pushed the headline index down by another 0.5 percentage points. Other items didThu, 15 Jan 2009 11:00:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-01-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-01-13.htmlDecember inflation slowed down significantly to 4.4% - The annual price growth slowed down significantly from 4.9% in November to 4.4% in December. Released figure was below our 4.8% forecast and market consensus at 4.7% y/y. On a monthly basis, prices declined by 0.2%. - As expected, fuel prices declined (reflecting oil price decline at the world market) but somewhat surprisingly, food prices also reported a 0.1% monthly decrease, while our expectation was a mild growth (which is typical forTue, 13 Jan 2009 10:04:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-01-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-01-02.html3Q C/A surplus narrowed 11% y/y Current account surplus in 3Q08 stood at EUR 1.85bn, hence confirming poor balance of payments trends and being 11% y/y lower. As expected merchandise account only confirmed negative monthly trade balance figures with deficit reaching EUR 2.7bn (+18% y/y). Exports accelerated with respect to 2Q growing 13% y/y, while imports maintained rather strong 16% y/y pace therefore imbalanced widened further. Traditionally service account in 3Q recorded strong surplusFri, 02 Jan 2009 14:11:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2009-01-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-12-30.htmlGDP growth moderated to 1.6% y/y in 3Q08 3Q GDP data showed expected moderation of economic activity posting 1.6% y/y growth , thus being slightly below our expectations (ESBe: 1.8% y/y) and presenting lowest figure since 4Q00. More detailed look at the numbers offers relatively little surprise. As monthly frequency indicators were suggesting private consumption growth decelerated significantly (+0.4% y/y vs. 2.2% y/y in 2Q) affected by peaking inflation pressures in 3Q, unfavorable real wagesTue, 30 Dec 2008 16:25:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-12-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-12-11.v02.htmlCPI continued declining in November, albeit at slower pace than expected - November CPI inflation slowed down from 5.1% y/y to 4.9% y/y, which was slightly above our and market forecasts (or estimate was 4.8%, market's 4.7%). Inflation continues in a declining tendency mainly because food prices do not increase in such extent as in the last year. - On a monthly basis, prices grew by 0.2% in November , due to increase in the prices of tobacco (by 7% as we expected) and increase in imputedThu, 11 Dec 2008 10:39:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-12-11.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-12-11.htmlCPI slowed to 4.2% y/y in November Consumer prices declined 0.2% m/m in November. Thus, the 12-month CPI inflation rate further slowed to 4.2% (from the 5.1% published for October). The figures surprised on the downside, as the market consensus for the 12 month rate was 4.6-4.8%. According to CSO’s comment, the 8.6% m/m decline in fuel prices pushed the headline index down by 0.5 percentage points. Prices of food were up just 0.1% compared to October. Thus, food and fuel prices developments asThu, 11 Dec 2008 10:32:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-12-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-12-10.htmlGDMA plans to cut the net forint denominated bond issuance by HUF 535bn next year This afternoon, the Government Debt Management Agency (GDMA) held a press conference on the 2009 issue planning. According to GDMA, the net financing needs of the state will amount to HUF 832.7bn next year, while the net issuance will be HUF 845bn. All of the net issuance will be denominated in FX, but there will be no FX bond issuance. Instead, the agency plans to use HUF 1,430bn worth of funds from theWed, 10 Dec 2008 17:52:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-12-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-12-04.htmlStrong economic growth in 3Q08 was driven by household consumption and investments - Statistical Office revised its 3Q08 real GDP growth a notch down to 7.0% y/y from preliminary estimate at 7.1% y/y. - The growth structure was similar to the one from the second quarter, when the main driver was domestic demand - both household consumption and investments , which posted yet another strong increase. - Household consumption increased by real 6.0% y/y in 3Q owing to the strong employment gains onThu, 04 Dec 2008 14:48:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-12-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-11-25.htmlThe monetary council surprised the markets today, by cutting the base rate by 50bp, to 11.00%. After the emergency 300bp rate hike (from 8.50% to 11.50%) carried out in October, when protecting the forint from further falls became the top priority for the central bank, the most important question was when the central bank would be able to “take back” from this. Although the fact, that the fundamental state of the county suggested the start of rate cuts sooner or later, we – in line with theTue, 25 Nov 2008 07:52:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/short-note/2008-11-25.html