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Slovakia: GDP flash for 1Q09

Fri, May 15 2009, 10:14 GMT
by Mária Valachyová

Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG


GDP fell by surprising 5.4% y/y

  • Today, the Slovak Statistical Office released a flash GDP estimate for the 1Q09. The real GDP contracted by 5.4% y/y, well below our and market expectations. We expected quarterly seasonally adjusted decline to be broadly in line with the development in Euro area (i.e. we assumed decline at around 3% q/q), however, decline after seasonal (and cigarettes pre-stocking) adjustment was likely more than double, assuming that the 4Q growth at 2.5% y/y was not revised downwards.
  • The structure will be known on June 3rd. Due to large drop we expect deterioration in all segments (notably in investments). It is possible that household consumption declined as well.
  • The released figure implies that recession in the Euro area hits Slovakia in full extent. For the whole year 2009 the Slovak economy might contract even more than Eurozone (the market currently expects contraction in Euro area at around 3.6%). We will accordingly revise our full-year forecast of Slovak GDP in coming days.
  • Employment in domestic concept fell by 0.4% y/y, while after seasonal adjustment remained unchanged at the level of the previous year.


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Erste Bank http://global.treasury.erstebank.com | Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

This document is intended as an additional information source, aimed towards our customers. It is based on the best resources available to the authors at press time. The information and data sources utilised are deemed reliable, however, Erste Bank Sparkassen (CR) and affiliates do not take any responsibility for accuracy nor completeness of the information contained herein. This document is neither an offer nor an invitation to buy or sell any securities.

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