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Slovakia: March CPI Inflation

Wed, May 13 2009, 09:36 GMT
by Michal Musâk

Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG


Inflation slowed down to 2.3%

  • Slovak consumer prices declined in April by 0.1% m/m and the annual CPI inflation slowed down from 2.6% in March to 2.3% in April. The market expected a notch higher inflation at 2.4%, our estimate was even higher at 2.6% y/y.
  • The main difference to our forecasts was the food prices, which went down for the third month in a row. They declined by 1% m/m. In this time of the year, the seasonal pattern usually speaks in favour of price growth but it seems that a more important factor was that Slovak retailers lowered prices to counter the cross-border consumer purchases (for Slovaks, weaker currencies of neighbouring countries means cheaper purchases). Compared to last year, food prices were lower by 2.1%. On the contrary, fuel prices grew, as world oil prices are on the rise amid recovery hopes and better market mood.
  • On Friday, HICP inflation is out. Based on today's data, we expect slowdown from 1.8% y/y to 1.4% y/y.
  • We expect further deceleration of inflation. In May and June, we expect CPI inflation around 2% and it could decline further towards 1% in the third quarter.


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Erste Bank http://global.treasury.erstebank.com | Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

This document is intended as an additional information source, aimed towards our customers. It is based on the best resources available to the authors at press time. The information and data sources utilised are deemed reliable, however, Erste Bank Sparkassen (CR) and affiliates do not take any responsibility for accuracy nor completeness of the information contained herein. This document is neither an offer nor an invitation to buy or sell any securities.

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