CPI inflation surged to 7.6% y/y in June
June CPI inflation came in slightly above our expectations (ESBe: 7.4%), adding 0.7% on the monthly basis and comfortably surpassing 7% on the annual level. The figures offered a few surprises in terms of structure. On the monthly level, pressure came from food and non-alcoholic beverages (+0.8% m/m), liquid fuel (+7.3% m/m) and transportation (+2.4% m/m), as expected. On top of that, seasonal recreation, culture and catering and accommodation services added to the pressure. Looking at the annual level, a few things have changed, as food and non-alcoholic beverage prices grew at a robust 13.1% y/y, followed by transportation prices at 11% y/y.
In July, we see the CPI figure above the 8% level, as the CPI figures should be negatively affected by the electricity price hike and an adverse base effect. However, seasonally-affected prices of food and clothing/footwear should ease the pressure to some extent. Towards the year-end, we see the headline dropping to the 6% region, alongside a moderation of the pressure on the supply side and as the base effect unwinds. On average, we expect CPI inflation in the 6.5-7% region.
