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Serbia: Elections: DS−led pro−EU coaltiontakes majority of vores

Tue, May 13 2008, 10:05 GMT
by Alen Kovac

Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG

DS-led pro-EU coalition takes majority of votes

• · The pro-European coalition gathered around President’s Tadic Democratic Party (DS) received a strong boost from the electorate, as, according to the preliminary results from CeSID (Center for Free Elections and Democracy), it won 38.7% of votes, considerably more than the rival Serbian Radical Party (SRS), which accounted for 29.1% of the votes. The Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) and New Serbia (NS) coalition headed by PM Kostunica took 11.3%, while the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) surprised on the upside, scoring 7.9 %.Finally, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), with 5.2%, is the last party to score over 5% and enter Parliament.
  

• · Public interest was high, as a turnout of 60.7% was recorded. In contrast to the pre-election polls, the pro-European coalition enjoyed a comfortable lead over the radicals, thus giving a strong boost to Serbia’s EU prospects. Still, the situation is far from certain, as negotiation talks are about to begin. Tadic will likely seek partners among the LDP, SPS and minority parties, but remains open to discussion with all parties willing to support the EU path. SRS announced that it would try to form a government by assembling a coalition with PM Kostunica’s DSS and SPS, which may also be a realistic option.

• · The coming days should reveal more about the direction of the post-election talks. Markets could remain volatile and sensitive to political news. Last week, the dinar depreciated to over the 83 RSD/EUR level. Currently, the dinar is moving in the 82-83 range. The general economic outlook remains sensitive to the political developments. A pro-EU coalition government would be supportive for FDI and capital inflows, thereby supporting growth prospects and overall macroeconomic stability. A government led by SRS would likely mean disbanding ties with the EU and a higher degree of macroeconomic uncertainty.

Published on  Tue, May 13 2008, 10:09 GMT

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