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Russia: Unemployment is falling
Tue, Oct 20 2009, 13:57 GMT
by Lars Rasmussen
Danske Bank A/S | View company's profile
Russian Federal Statistics Service (RFSS) released a raft of data today regarding the latest developments in the labour market and private spending. It was notable that unemployment has fallen to a ten-month-low of 7.6% from a peak above 10%. The unemployment data is backed by a recent survey that showed that Russian companies are starting to hire again. However, the RFSS recently adjusted their calculating procedures regarding unemployment data, and this blurs the picture somewhat.
We acknowledge that the Russian economy is gradually improving – according to the Russian Economy Ministry Q3 GDP added 0.6%. However final demand remains weak and is expected to remain so in the coming months. While the number of unemployed fell more than 200,000 during September, real wage growth is negative and real disposable income also declined – although at a slower pace than recently seen.
September retail sales supports the perception that domestic demand is still weak, but recovering. Retail sales (in constant prices) rose for the fourth consecutive month (+0.3% m/m in September). However, in year-on-year terms retail sales is still down 9.9%. We expect a further gradual improvement of household demand, but the 2010 outlook is challenged by the fiscal outlook, which will support growth to a less extent than in 2009.
Overall we expect the Russian economy to continue to gradually improve, especially if oil prices remain buoyant. We look for slightly positive GDP growth of 1.5% y/y for 2010.
Published on Tue, Oct 20 2009, 14:01 GMT
Danske Bank
| Holmens Kanal 2-12, DK-1092 Copenhagen
http://www.danskebank.com/ | danskeresearch@danskebank.com
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector. This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.
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