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Hungary: CPI inflation slowed to 6.7% y/y in June
Fri, Jul 11 2008, 08:03 GMT
by Orsolya Nyeste
Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG
Consumer prices rose just 0.1% m/m in June, while the 12-month CPI inflation rate slowed to 6.7% (from 7% published for May). Our expectation was 6.9% y/y, while estimations of market analyst fluctuated in the range of 6.8- 7% y/y. Thus, the June actual figures finally came as a positive surprise.
The monthly change in food prices was not estimated well again. Food prices dropped by 0.4% m/m in June, after a 1.9% m/m rise, seen in May, as the usual summer decrease in seasonal food prices seems to have started earlier than expected. In addition, the monthly price changes in the fields of clothes and durables were also negativ, in which the effects of stronger forint could have played some role, as well. Prices of services rose 0.2% m/m, also causing a slight positive surprise. As expected, fuel prices rose 2.2% m/m.
The seasonally adjusted core inflation showed 0.4% m/m increase, while the 12 month core rate also slowed, to 5.8% from its May level of 5.9% y/y. The figures do no suggest a rate hike at the next CB monetary meeting, which has led to some forint weakening after the release this morning.
Published on Fri, Jul 11 2008, 08:08 GMT
Erste Bank
http://global.treasury.erstebank.com | Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at
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