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Housing Chartbook April 2008

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We Have Not Hit Bottom Just Yet

Fri, Apr 4 2008, 13:22 GMT
by Adam York, Mark Vitner

Wells Fargo Investments, LLC


The most recent round of data on home sales and new residential construction generally came in slightly better than expected. Before breaking out the champagne, however, it is important to realize the bar is pretty low right now and the surprise has generally been that the data were not as bad as widely feared. We still believe home sales and housing starts have more room to fall; we do not expect foreclosures to peak or look for home prices to bottom for another nine months to a year.

There are a few reasons for optimism. Declining home prices and lower mortgage rates have sent housing affordability back up near the highs seen during the boom years. Unfortunately, much of the drop in home prices has been concentrated on entry-level and trade-up homes, which is where the subprime problems were the greatest. Credit underwriting has tightened considerably for buyers in this part of the market, which means fewer people can qualify for a new mortgage.

New home construction has also fallen sharply, particularly in parts of the country where speculative buying and price appreciation were the greatest. Permits for new home construction have fallen more than 70 percent from their peak level in Florida and Arizona, and are down more than 64 percent in California. In all, 39 states have posted declines of 50 percent or more over the past two and half years. The current pace of construction in most of these markets is well below the growth in households and obsolescence, which means we are beginning to cut into the oversupply of vacant new homes.

We have made minor changes to our housing forecast, mostly to incorporate more recent data on sales and new construction. We continue to look for home sales to bottom out during the first half of this year and expect housing starts to bottom out by the end of 2008. Home price declines should end during the first part of 2009 and we expect peak-to-trough declines in the more volatile, market-weighted, Case-Shiller price index to reach 20 percent. The OFHEO index, which covers a broader geographic region but excludes prices of most homes with nonconforming loans, will likely see a smaller decline of between 10 and 12 percent.

Home prices will bottom out about the same time foreclosures top out, which we believe will be in the first half of 2009. Efforts by Congress to stem the tide of foreclosures are likely to be modestly successful at best. A very large proportion of foreclosures, which we estimate to be around 40 percent, are on homes purchased by investors and speculators. There is little Congress or the lending community can doto prevent these borrowers from going under, which will result in sharply higher foreclosures and price declines in investor-laden markets, such as Florida, Arizona, Nevada and California’s Central Valley.

The major downside risk for the housing market and broader economy is that the credit crunch materially worsens or fails to improve during the coming year. The result would be a deeper and longer contraction in home sales and new home construction. It is hard to imagine, however, how much more new construction can fall in Florida and Arizona, where many of the most overbuilt markets have already seen housing permits fall close to zero.

While home construction can fall all the way to zero, the demand for new homes can not. Each year the U.S. population adds roughly 3 million new residents, which produces around 1.2 million new households. The Census Bureau estimates that around 350,000 homes are removed from the housing stock each year due to obsolescence, fires, and natural disasters. Second home demand, which averaged around 200,000 homes a year during the boom years, is practically nonexistent today. That means the underlying demand for homes is around 1.55 million units.

Using these measures, we calculated that builders delivered around 875,000 more homes than the market demanded during the boom years. This oversupply is now beginning to be absorbed. We estimate builders will deliver around 1.2 million homes this year and 1.0 million in 2009. This means that the excess supply of homes should largely be cleared out by the end of next year. A few markets, most notably Florida, California, and Arizona, may take a little longer to clear, but the housing market should be roughly back in balance by the end of the decade.

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Housing Chartbook: April 2007

Thu, Apr 26 2007, 08:23 GMT
by Phillip Neuhart, Mark Vitner

Wells Fargo Investments, LLC


Emotions continue to run the gamut as to whether or not we have seen the worst of the housing slump. We continue to believe that we have not. The winter housing data are notoriously volatile, making it an extremely difficult time to call a turning point. The spring selling season apparently got off to a slow start, and we expect seasonally-adjusted sales to fall significantly. We may see the actual low point in sales in the next few months. But even after sales bottom out, there are still plenty of inventories to be cleared out and a significant adjustment in prices and affordability that needs to take place.

Our housing forecast remains essentially the same as it has for the past six months. We expect sales of new and existing homes to bottom out around the middle of this year. New home construction will continue to weaken, however, and will not likely hit bottom until a year later, in mid 2008. The stabilization in sales and the continued drop in new construction should clear out a significant proportion of new and existing home inventories, paving the way for a modest revival in homebuilding toward the end of the decade.

The one major change since our last Housing Chartbook has been the emergence of troubles in the subprime lending market. Delinquencies on subprime mortgages have risen sharply in recent months, with a particularly sharp rise in delinquencies on loans written after home sales peaked during the third quarter of 2005.

Our contention has been from the onset of these troubles that a large proportion of the problems in subprime lending market arose from overly aggressive underwriting and outright fraud. As such we do not expect to see a general worsening in credit conditions. Credit availability and terms for first-time homebuyers will be constrained, however, and this could modestly deepen and lengthen the amount of time needed to bring the housing market back into balance.


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For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better. Glossary All or None (AON) A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed. Day Order A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session. Fill or Kill An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled. Good Til Canceled (GTC) An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order). Immediate or Cancel An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled. Limit Order An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases). Maintenance Call A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity. Margin Requirement Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales. Market Makers NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds. Market Order An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace. Specialists Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy. Stop An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. Stop Limit An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order. These articles are for information and education purposes only. You will need to evaluate the merits and risks associated with relying on any information provided. Although this article may provide information relating to approaches to investing or types of securities and investments you might buy or sell, Wells Fargo and its affiliates are not providing investment recommendations, advice, or endorsements. Data have been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Wells Fargo makes no warranties and bears no liability for your use of this information. The information made available to you is not intended, and should not be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice, or a legal opinion.


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