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FOMC Meeting May 09,2007
Thu, May 10 2007, 07:27 GMT
by Joseph Trevisani
The FOMC will not change rates today that opinion is universal. The risk for the Dollar, however, is still on the downside. Inflation has moderated a bit in the latest statistics, productivity was better than expected in the first quarter and the preliminary unit labor costs figure, 0.6%, was 1/10 of the 6.2% rise in the fourth quarter of 2006. Balanced against these positive inflation developments are the strong gains in gasoline prices, likely to continue through the summer. Inflation appears to be headed lower in a manner congenial to the Fed Chairman. GDP growth was anemic in the first quarter, 1.3%, and though this is a preliminary reading with two more scheduled revisions, prolonged growth at this rate would set off all sorts of alarm bells at the Fed. Acknowledgement of either development in the text of the statement will strain the Dollar's recent advance for the simple reason that it would shift the balance for the next Fed rate move closer to a cut. The two phrases to watch are "likely to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters", describing economic growth, and "recent reading on core inflation have been somewhat elevated" and "likely to moderate over time" for inflation.
The FOMC statement will be released at 2:15 pm Eastern Time today.
Published on Thu, May 10 2007, 07:27 GMT
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