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Employment Report (May 2008)

Mon, Jun 9 2008, 07:36 GMT
by Marcial Nava, Alejandro Neut

BBVA Bancomer

• • The nonfarm payroll decreased by 49K jobs. Over the past five months, it has accumulated a net lost of 324K.
  

• • Construction led the way down in May, shedding 34K jobs. Manufacturing payroll went down by 26K jobs.
  

• • Government services added 17K jobs; however, employment in private services declined by 9K as significant losses in transportation, retail, and professional and business services were partially compensated by expected job creation in education, healthcare and leisure.

• • Average hourly earnings grew 0.3% in May to $17.94. Real hourly earnings declined 0.1% for the second straight month.
  

• • Boosted by an upsurge in the 16 to 24 years old labor force, the unemployment rate climbed from 5% in April to an unexpected 5.5% in May. The participation rate rose to 66.2%, the highest since March 2007.

• Download full Economic Brief with charts

Published on  Mon, Jun 9 2008, 07:36 GMT

Bank Lending Practices Survey (May, 2008)

Wed, May 7 2008, 07:20 GMT
by BBVA Bancomer Team

BBVA Bancomer

• • In 2Q08, an increasing number of financial institutions tightened lending standards for C&I loans. The majority of respondents increased spreads on the loan rates over their cost of funds.
  

• • Four main reasons to tight credit supply: less favorable economic outlook, worsening of industry-specific problems, reduce tolerance for risk and decreased liquidity in the secondary market for these loans. In addition, one out of three institutions had concerns about their bank’s current or expected capital position
  

• • Lower demand for C&I loans resulted from a decrease in customer’s needs to finance investment in plants and equipment or to finance merges and acquisitions

• • Commercial real estate: tightening supply and lower demand

• • The majority of respondents tightened their lending standards on prime, nontraditional and subprime residential mortgages over the past three months. Lower housing prices had led to tougher restrictions for home equity lines of credit
  

• • Increasing number of financial institutions reduced the limits on credit card loans and raised the minimum required credit scores to tighten household lending.

• Download full Economic Brief with charts

Published on  Wed, May 7 2008, 07:20 GMT

Bank Lending Practices Survey (May, 2008)

Mon, May 5 2008, 13:39 GMT
by BBVA Bancomer Team

BBVA Bancomer

• • In 2Q08, an increasing number of financial institutions tightened lending standards for C&I loans. The majority of respondents increased spreads on the loan rates over their cost of funds.
  

• • Four main reasons to tight credit supply: less favorable economic outlook, worsening of industry-specific problems, reduce tolerance for risk and decreased liquidity in the secondary market for these loans. In addition, one out of three institutions had concerns about their bank’s current or expected capital position
  

• • Lower demand for C&I loans resulted from a decrease in customer’s needs to finance investment in plants and equipment or to finance merges and acquisitions

• • Commercial real estate: tightening supply and lower demand

• • The majority of respondents tightened their lending standards on prime, nontraditional and subprime residential mortgages over the past three months. Lower housing prices had led to tougher restrictions for home equity lines of credit
  

• • Increasing number of financial institutions reduced the limits on credit card loans and raised the minimum required credit scores to tighten household lending.

• Download full Economic Brief with charts

Published on  Mon, May 5 2008, 13:39 GMT

Employment Report (March, 2008)

Mon, Apr 7 2008, 15:21 GMT
by BBVA Bancomer Team

BBVA Bancomer

• Nonfarm payrolls fell 80K in March, posting their third consecutive decline. Figures for the prior two months were revised down by a cumulative 67K. Although our scenario of 95K job losses in March was more pessimistic than consensus, the revisions to the first two months of 2008 added up to an even weaker labor market than predicted

• Private employment decreased 98K in March, registering its fourth consecutive decline

• According to the household survey, the unemployment rate edged up to 5.1% in March from 4.8% in February, reaching its highest since September 2005. The labor force participation rate rose to 66.0% from 65.9%

Bottom Line. The relatively moderate labor contraction -when compared to previous recessionary periods- supports a short-lived and mild recession. This is likely the result of a significant reduction in the volatility of the business cycle (see our Weekly analysis of January 14th 2008, “Growth Deceleration and the Current Business Cycle”).

On the positive side, education and health, and leisure and hospitality will keep adding jobs to the private services sector. The health sector has been boosted by an aging population, whereas the strength of leisure and hospitality may be benefiting from greater tourism activity. In addition, population trends will support a sustained growth in government employment in health and education services. However downside risks persist. Employment in the goods producing sector will continue declining due to the housing meltdown which has not bottom yet and poses significant contagion risks to private services employment. Moreover, continuing financial markets strains could lead to a more prolonged period of credit tightness while employment in general public administration could decline with the business cycle. In addition job contraction in the manufacturing sector is likely to continue given ongoing structural trends.

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Published on  Mon, Apr 7 2008, 15:21 GMT

Fedwatch: Bernanke's Testimony on The Economic Outlook

Thu, Apr 3 2008, 07:43 GMT
by BBVA Bancomer Team

BBVA Bancomer

Bernanke said that the near-term economic outlook has weakened relative to the projections released at the end of January. He expects that the poor economic performance in recent months will likely extend to the 2Q08 and GDP will not grow much and could even contract over 1H08 -in line with our forecasts. He still expressed measured optimism on the economic outlook for H208 and beyond, although he acknowledged that risks remain to the downside and the uncertainty of this forecast is quite high.

Residential construction is likely to contract somewhat further in coming quarters as builders try to reduce their high inventories of unsold new homes. Although consumer spending has decelerated considerably, Bernanke expects that the fiscal stimulus package together with new measures that Congress may still announce will provide relief. Net exports should continue to provide considerable support in coming quarters. The nonfinancial business sector remains financially sound, with liquid balance sheets and low leverage ratios, and most firms have been able to avoid unwanted buildups in inventories.

On the inflation front, Bernanke said that the recent pickup in inflation has been the result of sharp increases in the prices of crude oil, agricultural products, other globally traded commodities, and some pass-through from dollar weakness. However, core inflation has edged down recently after firming somewhat late. Bernanke expects both inflation measures to moderate and converge in coming months. This expectation is partially based on a leveling out of prices for oil and other commodities.

Bernanke’s view on financial markets was pessimistic. Although Fed actions have given some breath to financial markets, they still remain under considerable stress; several financial institutions have reported significant losses and write-downs, limiting credit availability. Financial stress has reached markets that were untouched just a few months ago such as market municipal bonds, student loans, and mortgage backed securities issued by government agencies. In addition, strains continue to be evident in commercial paper.

Bernanke defended the rescue of Bear Stearns arguing that leaving this situation to market forces –which should be case when financial markets are healthy- would have led to “unpredictable but likely severe” consequences for market functioning and the overall economy. In the Q&A session, Bernanke emphasized the importance of Congressional action in helping to stabilize the housing market, particularly by preventing foreclosures to increase further, mainly through a loan-by-loan approach. In addition, he suggested that the recent rise of capital by some banks was a very positive sign.

Given Fed more pessimistic view on financial markets and its risks to the overall economy, further rate cuts are probable. We expect an additional rate cut of 25 to 50 bp in April 30th, depending on how financial markets and economic variables turn out; March’s employment figures will be crucial. A more moderate stance is also supported by FOMC intentions to asses the impact of recent rate cuts and additional liquidity actions on the economy before continuing its easing policy.

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Published on  Thu, Apr 3 2008, 07:43 GMT

Fedwatch

Wed, Mar 12 2008, 09:44 GMT
by BBVA Bancomer Team

BBVA Bancomer

Bottom Line: Faced with the deterioration of the economic outlook, prompted by financial malaise, the Fed announces targeted injection of liquidity to aid markets in distress. These measures complement recently created channels deemed more effective than broad rate cuts. Market reaction was positive while the implied probability of a 75bp rate cut in the next FOMC declined to 64% from yesterday

Today, the Federal Reserve announced two measures to alleviate liquidity in funding markets.

• • Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF). One additional channel to promote liquidity with weekly auctions starting on March 27. The Fed will lend up to 200 billions dollars in Treasuries to primary dealers under better terms: the lending period is increased to 28 days from overnight and the Fed will accept non-agency AAA/Aaa-rated private-label residential MBS as collateral.

•  • Currency swap lines with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Fed increased currency agreements for up to $30 billion and $6 billion to the ECB and the SNB, respectively. The terms of these swaps were extended trough September 30, 2008. These swap lines were opened last December with an initial provision of up to $20 billion and $4 billion to the ECB and the SNB respectively, and were to expire in June

These steps add to those taken on Friday, when the Fed increased the amount outstanding in the Term Auction Facility to $100 billion in March and assured the continuing operation of this channel as long as it is needed. Fed also initiated a series of term repurchase transactions that are expected to cumulate to $100 billion. These follow traditional guidelines for collateral purposes.

• Download full Economic Brief with charts

Published on  Wed, Mar 12 2008, 09:44 GMT

Bank Lending Practices Survey 4Q2007

Wed, Feb 6 2008, 11:28 GMT
by Ignacio San Martín

BBVA Bancomer

• · Weaker credit demand from both firms and households in the last quarter of 2007.
• · Strong increase in the number of financial institutions tightening standards for commercial real estate loans
  
• · Tighter lending standards for households not only for mortgage loans but also for consumer loans and credit cards

The January 2008 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices reported that financial institutions had tightened their lending standards and terms for a broad range of bank loan types over the third quarter of 2007. The majority of institutions pointed to a less favorable or uncertain economic outlook, a worsening of industry-specific problems, and a reduced tolerance for risk as reasons for their restrictive polices. A smaller but growing fraction of respondents noted that a deterioration of their banks’ current or expected capital position had contributed to their decision to tighten credit supply.

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Published on  Wed, Feb 6 2008, 11:28 GMT

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