EMU economic indicators
German GDP (Q4 2008): down
Mon, Feb 9 2009, 06:07 GMT
by BHF-Bank Economics Department
BHF-Bank | View company's profile
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German GDP will probably have plummeted quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2008, just as output in the producing sector did. The previous quarters’ data might be revised slightly. On 13 February, Destatis (the German Federal Statistical Office) is publishing its “flash release” on Q4 German GDP; a detailed breakdown of the components will follow on 25 February. Private consumption could have remained more or less unchanged, while all other components are expected to have decreased. Net exports, changes in inventories and investment in machinery and equipment are likely to have been the main drag on overall GDP growth. French, Italian and EMU GDP are all likely to have contracted significantly in Q4 too.
French, Italian and EMU industrial production will probably have continued declining in December, because all of the correlated indicators dropped. Following the seasonal pattern, the German trade balance will probably have deteriorated in December, whereas the German current account might have even improved.
German consumer price inflation in January is likely to be confirmed at –0.5% mom and 0.9% yoy. In the coming months, inflation is expected to decrease further due to oil price related base effects. Furthermore, the ongoing recession and the financial crisis are dampening aggregate demand, thus limiting the scope for raising prices.
Published on
Mon, Feb 9 2009, 06:10 GMT
Archive
- German ZEW economic sentiment (March): Slightly down
Published On Mon, Mar 15 2010, 05:29 GMT
- EMU industrial production (January): Up
Published On Mon, Mar 8 2010, 05:41 GMT
- German industrial new orders (January): Up
Published On Mon, Mar 1 2010, 08:13 GMT
- EMU economic sentiment (February): Unchanged
Published On Mon, Feb 22 2010, 06:02 GMT
- PMI manufacturing index EMU (February): Slightly up
Published On Mon, Feb 15 2010, 05:42 GMT
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Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
This report has been prepared by BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies (together "BHFBANK Group") solely for the information of its clients. The information and opinions in this document are based on sources believed to be reliable and acting in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by any member of the BHF-BANK Group as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and recommendations are given in good faith but without legal responsibility and are subject to change without notice. The information does not constitute advice or personal recommendation, for which the duty of suitability would be owed, but may facilitate your own investment decision. Moreover, you should seek your own advice as to the suitability of an investment matter mentioned herein. Investors are reminded that the price of securities and the income from them can go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment or a market is not necessarily indicative for future results. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete, and this document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy the securities mentioned in it. BHF-BANK Group and its officers and employees may have a long or short position or engage in transactions in any of the securities mentioned in this document, or in any related securities. This publication must not be distributed in the United States. © 2009 BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft All rights reserved. Please mention source when quoting from it.
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