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EMU economic indicators

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EMU industrial confidence and economic sentiment (July): down

Mon, Jul 28 2008, 06:53 GMT
by BHF-Bank Economics Department

BHF-Bank

• German retail sales (June): stable

• EMU inflation (July) flash estimate: up at 4.2 % yoy

• German adjusted unemployment (July): down by 16k

The GfK German consumer confidence for August will probably have continued deteriorating, due to the high inflation rate and the pessimistic business climate. French consumer confidence is likely to have deteriorated in July for the 13th consecutive time, but at a slower pace than before.

EMU industrial confidence and economic sentiment will probably have fallen in July too, like most of the corresponding national figures. The RBS purchasing managers’ indices for the German and the EMU manufacturing sector for July are not likely to be revised significantly.

German adjusted unemployment might have decreased by about 16k only in July, given the big unexpected drop by 38k in June and given that employment growth seems to be fading out, as the ifo business climate has deteriorated recently. The adjusted unemployment rate might have remained at 7.8%. The harmonised EMU unemployment rate could have remained unchanged at 7.2% in June.

German retail sales might have remained unchanged in June, after having increased twice in a row. Retailers’ business assessment had recovered, but consumer confidence had only stabilized.

As from Monday, the German Länder will start publishing regional CPI data for July. Subsequently, the preliminary results for national German CPI in July will be released. We expect German consumer prices to have increased by 0.6% mom and 3.3% yoy. The monthly increase will have been due to higher prices for package tours and accommodation services because of the summer holidays. Moreover, there were further price increases for gasoline and heating oil – but at a slower pace compared to preceding months. On the other hand, numerous utility companies announced sharp price increases for natural gas as from July. Food and clothing prices could have had a dampening effect on the monthly rate.

The Eurostat flash estimate is likely to show that euro area inflation has accelerated further to 4.2% yoy in July. This would correspond with a monthly rate of –0.1% in unadjusted terms because the dampening effects on the monthly inflation rate are expected to be much higher than in Germany.

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Published on  Mon, Jul 28 2008, 07:02 GMT