EMU economic indicators

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German ZEW economic sentiment is likely to have deteriorated in July

Mon, Jul 14 2008, 08:25 GMT
by BHF-Bank Economics Department

BHF-Bank


  • EMU industrial production is expected to have decreased significantly in May

  • HICP inflation in the euro area will probably be confirmed at 4.0% yoy for June

In July, the German ZEW economic sentiment will probably have deteriorated for the fourth consecutive time. The US ISM manufacturing index improved slightly, but the correlated ifo indicators plummeted. Moreover, the euro has remained strong and the German yield spread has deteriorated recently, as long-term interest rates have gone down and short-term ones up. The crude oil price has soared and the DAX performance index has decreased.

EMU industrial production is expected to have plummeted in May, just like most of the corresponding national figures and partly due to calendar effects. The EMU trade balance will probably have deteriorated in May, just like the corresponding German figure.

German consumer price inflation in June is expected to be confirmed at 3.3 % yoy and 0.3 % mom. According to the Länder data, the monthly increase was mainly due to sharply higher gasoline and heating oil prices; food prices were probably neutral month-on-month.

According to the available national results, final HICP inflation in the eurozone is likely to be confirmed at 4.0% in June. Like in Germany, this new inflation record for the euro area will be mainly due to the sharp price increases for energy and food year-on-year. The monthly inflation rate is expected to be at 0.4%.

Published on  Mon, Jul 14 2008, 08:30 GMT

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