EMU economic indicators

German ZEW economic sentiment is likely to have remained unchanged in May

Mon, May 19 2008, 06:10 GMT
by BHF-Bank Economics Department

BHF-Bank


  • The German ifo business climate is also expected to have remained stable in May

  • The May RBS PMI manufacturing indices for Germany and the EMU could be unchanged too

In May, the German ZEW economic sentiment and the German ifo business climate index are likely to have remained more or less stable, given that they had plummeted in April. Most of the correlated ifo indicators have deteriorated, but the US ISM manufacturing index has stabilized recently. The German yield spread has improved slightly, as long-term interest rates have gone up more than short-term interest rates. The DAX performance index has increased too and the euro has depreciated somewhat. However, the crude oil price has soared.

In view of the above, the RBS purchasing managers’ index for the German and the EMU manufacturing sector and Belgian business confidence are all likely to have remained at the same level in May, whereas Italian consumer confidence could have fallen somewhat.

French consumer spending is likely to have rebounded in April, having plummeted in March and because French consumer confidence only deteriorated slightly. EMU industrial new orders are expected to have decreased in March, just like the corresponding German figure. Italian GDP will probably have decreased in Q4 2007 and rebounded in Q1 2008, just like Italian industrial production. However, due to methodological changes, Italian GDP data might be revised substantially. Thus the above forecasts are very uncertain.

Published on  Mon, May 19 2008, 06:16 GMT

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