EMU economic indicators

German ZEW economic sentiment is not likely to have continued improving in April

Mon, Apr 14 2008, 05:44 GMT
by BHF-Bank Economics Department

BHF-Bank


  • EMU industrial production is expected to have increased slightly in February

  • HICP inflation in the euro area will probably be confirmed at 3.5% yoy for March

In April, the German ZEW economic sentiment is only likely to have stabilized. This is indicated by several factors. Both the US ISM manufacturing index and the ifo business expectations in the German business sector rose slightly in March. As a result of the increase in short and long-term interest rates, the German yield spread has improved, albeit not enough to compensate for its drop in the first half of March. The same applies to the DAX performance index. Furthermore, the crude oil price is still high and the euro has appreciated.

February EMU industrial production is expected to have increased slightly, just like most of the corresponding national figures. Following its usual seasonal pattern, the EMU trade balance will probably have rebounded in February.

Given the results in the Länder, German consumer price inflation in March is expected to be confirmed at 3.1 % yoy and 0.5 % mom. Final HICP inflation in the eurozone is likely to be confirmed at 3.5 % year-on-year in March, i.e. 0.9 % month-on-month.

Published on  Mon, Apr 14 2008, 05:47 GMT

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