Harry Boxer, On 4 Top Charts to Watch (TheTechTrader.com)
We're going to look at stocks on the long side as this market continues to press higher, and although many of our shorts are working, we have longs we want to talk about to see how they're doing and what might be next for them.
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) continues its recent run. It broke out of the resistance zone with a pop, pulled back and held, ran up again, and made a run at the declining topsline, pulled back to test support, bounced off that, then retested support, and then ran up to the new rally highs on Monday, reaching 23.16. It closed up 1.20 to 22.46, or 5.6%, on 8.2 million shares. Look for this stock to get up to the 23 1/2-3/4 swing-trade range, and then up around 27 potentially.
Homeowners Choice, Inc. (HCII) continues undauntingly. Even though there was a nice reversal, a 3-day decline that held support and bounced around for 3 weeks, a move back to the high, a pullback to the moving average, it reversed on Monday, going from 20.05 to 22.18, closing at 21.96, up 1.36, or 6.6%, on 356,000 shares. The volume was the best in a couple weeks. If it can just get through the 2.25 range, which it got near on Monday, look for something up around 26 on this stock.
Inergy, L.P. (NRGY) has a nice look to it. It popped on Monday, up 1.15 to 20.86, or 5.8%, on 7.7 million shares, and wasn't far off the high. That was the best volume in about 3 weeks. If it breaks through resistance, it could move up about 50 cents higher, and beyond that, look for it to get up around the 23 1/2 - 24 area.
Repros Therapeutics Inc. (RPRX) had a significant day on Monday. This stock broke out of a wedge, broke through key triple-top resistance, and then thrust 1.45 to 10.98, or 15%, on nearly a million shares. It had a good day, a good close at the upper end of the range, and if it gets a follow-through, it could potentially run up into the 14-15 zone short-term, and then 16-17 intermediate-term.
Other stocks in our Charts for the Day are Affymax, Inc. (AFFY), Hudson Technologies Inc. (HDSN), Nanosphere, Inc. (NSPH), Nam Tai Electronics, Inc. (NTE), Oplink Communications Inc (OPLK), REEDS, Inc. (REED), Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (SRPT), Unisys Corporation (UIS), and Vringo, Inc. (VRNG).
Jack Steiman, On Strong Action for the Bulls (SwingTradeOnline.com)
Monday was a flat day for the markets across all the key indexes.
Fractional losses. No loss in price, yet some unwinding, which makes the market bulls pretty darn happy. I can't blame them. It's more of a red flag, if you unwind slowly, while price races down. But here we have the exact opposite situation taking place.
The Nasdaq is acting as if it does not want to surrender its big breakout over 3025, while the S&P 500 is acting as if it wants to join the breakout party, with a move over 1425 in time. No guarantee that will take place, but you have to love the way things look technically. Breaking out could take a lot more time, but so far the action is good for the bulls.
Mr. Bernanke has to be breathing a sigh of relief for the time being. He doesn't want to implement a QE3 program, but will be forced to do so if the market were to turn down drastically. With the market moving higher overall, he gets a much needed vacation from an act of desperation he really wants no part of anyway -- i.e., to add a boat load of inflation into a recessionary environment. With unemployment on the increase along with foreclosures, not to mention more folks having their pay cut, it's not the best time to be making it tougher on the average person with the cost of food, etc. Bernanke wants the economy to try and recover naturally, without having to use intervention.
It seems as if the problems of Europe have gone away, doesn't it? They haven't, but for some reason, the market is acting well. It's acting as if it knows it has protection. It's acting as if it believes something will come along to help out the economies around the world. Is that the truth? I don't know but it's acting as if that's what's upon us down the road. A happy ending, and hey, we all like happy endings. Of course, what looks happy one day may not look so happy in a few months, so you never let your guard down. Never get complacent, because that's when the carpet gets pulled out from underneath you. Respect all possibilities, and you'll live to tell about it later.
For now, the Nasdaq remains on breakout, while the S&P 500 waits to join its brother on the happier side of its wedge still in place. If we can get the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both on breakout through their respective wedges, it's lights out for the bears.
Avi Gilburt, On Looking to Short Higher Levels in Precious Metals (ElliottWaveTrader.net)
I have been saying in our Trading Room for the last few weeks that once we see the metals begin their last ascent into our target region, we will likely be making a top in all asset markets. In fact, after much consolidation over the last two weeks, the metals seem to have come to life, which probably means that all markets are now nearing a top of significance. Based upon my larger perspective, I think we will begin to see much more correlation between all "risk" assets over the next several years.
This past week did provide us with a moment of concern, as GLD dropped down into the low 153 region and then recovered quickly. However, silver did not confirm the move. But, remember what I have written for the last two weeks: as long as the 153.40 level holds in GLD, we will still go higher. This is where GLD found support this past week and reversed strongly.
Although nothing has changed from a larger pattern standpoint, I am going to expect that the metals will really come to life this coming week, and may yet be the best long trade early in the week for a strong final move into our target zone. But, this trade is probably only for the most aggressive of traders among us, and most may want to simply set up their short positions for the bigger decline that we expect, which will follow this next top.
At this time, we are still expecting that a 5 wave pattern is completing into the GLD 159-161.75 region and the 28.75-29.85 region in the silver futures. Furthermore, it seems as though we are in the middle of the final wave up in both silver and gold.
As far as GLD is concerned, dropping below 153.40 would tell me that 150 and 148 would be the next targets lower, and a break of 148 would then open the door to our ideal target of the 143/44 region, with the potential to extend as low as the 141.85 level. However, if GLD is able to move over the 161.75 level when it attempts to complete this pattern to the upside over the next week or two, then it invalidates our larger pattern, as that would be where wave 4 would be entering into wave 1 territory.
In truth, while it may invalidate the specific pattern that I have represented on the chart, I still believe that a decline which breaks down below the 150 level will still result in a sizeable decline, but it would simply mean that the pattern will change into a WXY c-wave of a wave (4). Again, expectations remain for lower levels to be seen, and that those levels can be seen within the next 4-6 weeks.
As far as silver futures are concerned, my expectations remain similar to GLD. I am still expecting the rise towards the blue box target zone, to be followed by a decline. As long as that decline breaks below the 26.40 level, my expectations are for the decline to next test 25.78, and if that level breaks, then 24.23 and 22.40/22.70 will be my target regions for the bottom of wave(4).
Also, just like the equity markets, my expectation remains that a large rally will follow this bottoming pattern. Of course, we need to confirm that this next decline provides us with the appropriate positive divergence on our daily chart, as well as the smaller time frame charts, which, if seen, will have us buying this decline for the expected parabolic rally which will likely ensue. This would be the rally that will take the metals to new highs in very short order, and may have them see 60+ silver and 2100+ gold before the end of the calendar year.
If you remember last year, in the 5th wave of its larger degree wave (3), silver went from 27 to 50 in two months. Since 5th waves are generally the strongest waves in the commodity markets, the strength of the expected rally can even exceed the prior rally phase, as it is a 5th wave of a higher degree. So, seeing a rally from 22 to 60 in three months would not at all be out of the question, even as unbelievable as that may seem at this time.
Mike Paulenoff, On Apple Thrust Exhausted? (MPTrader.com)
Wow... Apple Inc. (AAPL) is on a mini-parabolic rip to new all-time highs.
AAPL's "major" parabolic rip occurred between Feb and Apr 2012, from 470 to 644, prior to a 6-week bout of weakness that pressed the stock back to the 529 area.
From a pattern perspective, all of the upside action from the May 18 low at 538.66 into today's new high near 665 does not -- despite its power -- exhibit the form indicative of a new upleg.
The February-April vertical advance, however, did exhibit bull-market upleg characteristics.
Where does that leave me?
As of this moment, my work identifies a window of risk between 671 and 688, from where, or below which, I am expecting the current up-move in AAPL to peak and reverse sharply.
Only a sustained closing climb above 690 will totally invalidate my current outlook, and will point AAPL to 700-750.
At this juncture, failure to continue higher, followed by a decline that breaks 659.80, will represent an initial signal that the current thrust is exhausted.