Jack Steiman, On Hanging in There on the Long Side (SwingTradeOnline.com)
We got the news out of Greece Sunday night that the political party voted in was exactly as hoped for by Wall Street. The futures naturally blasted up by as many as 100 points on the Dow. As usual, the futures eroded overnight to the point where we opened to the down side on the S&P 500 and Dow, while showing some small upside action on the Nasdaq 100, which led up all day thanks to Apple Inc. (AAPL). It's hard for good news to keep its positive feel on the markets for very long, as many are anxious to short and sell due to global fundamentals. To be honest, it's hard to blame them. By day's end, the markets were mostly higher by a bit, but nothing to really get excited about in terms of saying we're now on a clean breakout.
Looking ahead this week, we'll be hearing from Mr. Bernanke on Wednesday. Here's a man who definitely does not want to create hyper-inflation. He knows that one too many QE programs will do just that, and so deep down he'd love to avoid ever doing another one again until he's gone from office. Let someone else worry about it, but he definitely wants no part of it, if at all possible. He knows it's just a temporary fix to a much larger problem that it cannot solve. More debt and more inflation is not good, but his sole concern is to keep the markets moving higher. The only way that's going to happen is either the physical implementation of a new QE program, or the threat of one.
He would rather it stay only a threat.
Bernanke talked up the fact that he'll do one in a heartbeat should our economy need it based on actions in Europe. He knows the stock market up trend line is at 1260/1265.
Trust me folks, he knows. We're now well above that, thanks to his threats of doing another program. He may choose to back off now that things are better, but he knows if he backs off too hard, he'll kill the market. I expect more promises on Wednesday, but definitely no action. The market may take a short-term hit on that, but nothing close enough to warrant an actual act for more easing. I think he'll say less, but make it clear that no one needs to worry. That would be perfect medicine for the short-term. He's a master technician in how to keep things moving along without actually doing anything.
Good for him, and, probably, good for the market short-term.
The markets are over those critical 50-day exponential moving averages, but not by enough to declare it safe for the bulls. The Nasdaq 100 closed at 2895, but that's only 3 points above those 50's. The S&P 500 is a bit better, but not by much. It closed at 1344, but those 50's are only 6 points below at 1338. Half a percent does not a breakout make. The Nasdaq 100, only 3 points above, is really meaningless. So the action is better, but non-confirming at this point in time. The top of the current wedge in place is at 1400/1415 on the S&P 500, and so it is possible we could get that high on this move over time. Not straight up, of course, but overall. If we get that high, it is very likely we will form negative divergences on the S&P 500 so down we'll go again.
Hanging in there on the long side a bit makes the most sense, but getting aggressively long is not the way to play. 1300 is massive long-term support for the S&P 500. 1338 to ultimately 1400/1415 is resistance.
Avi Gilburt, On Possible Top on Tuesday (ElliottWaveTrader.net)
It is always wonderful when the best trade of the day gets set up in the morning. This morning, as the market moved into our target of 1327, we had a really nice 13 point long trade into the 1340 region. However, the smaller time frame pattern has become less clear since that time.
As you can see from the 3 minute chart, I have put in a count that is a potential path to the upside at this time, even though the last part of this move up is not as clear.
Tuesday is our next turn date, and, ideally, I am expecting some form of top to be created tomorrow in the 1351-1363 region. Whether that top is the top of green wave i of 3, or red wave (c) of wave (2) will only be determined based upon the manner in which the market declines from that level. So, if the market does begin its decline tomorrow and is able to complete a 3 wave move down, that could complete this week, and, by next week, we may be off to the races towards the 1380-1400 region in wave iii of 3 up.
However, if the market breaks down below the .618 retracement of wave i, which is now estimated to be at 1317 if 1351 will mark the top tomorrow, then it will be the first indication that something much more bearish may be in store for the markets.
Mike Paulenoff, On New Bull for Nat Gas? (MPTrader.com)
My near- and intermediate-term pattern, momentum and volume work argue strongly that natural gas in the grasp of a very powerful countertrend advance. The chart on nearby natural gas futures shows that more than likely nat gas is nearing the completion of a major base pattern that has the potential to signal the initiation of a new bull market (as difficult as that might be to believe).
Let's notice that nearby natural gas has carved out a 6-month accumulation pattern, with the price structure pushing up towards a confrontation with its key intermediate resistance plateau at 2.76-2.85. If hurdled and sustained, this will trigger upside potential into the 3.400-3.600 target zone thereafter.
Should such a scenario unfold, my suspicion is that it will coincide with, and represent a reaction to, an unambiguous shift in the perception of the underlying supply-demand "balance" that for the first time in years suggests a reversal in an abundant and climbing supply of natural gas. From an intermediate term perspective, only a sudden downside reversal that breaks below the recent low of 2.1680 will invalidate the current technical set-set.
Traders of natural gas may want to look at the U.S. Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG), which today has surged to a new recovery high at 18.17 off of the June 13 low at 15.18. I would be raising my protective stops to just under 17.00 now, looking for upside continuation towards a confrontation with the Feb.-June down trendline, now at 18.90.
Harry Boxer, On 4 Charts to Watch (TheTechTrader.com)
It was a mixed day on Wall Street on Monday, with the blue chips not fairing that well, but Nasdaq 100 really ripped, especially on large-cap stocks like Apple Inc. (AAPL), Google Inc. (GOOG), Amazon.com Inc.
(AMZN), and some of the others. Some of the stocks we follow did very well on Monday as well, so let's take a look at some of those.
ProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Natural Gas (BOIL) has an interesting pattern. It had a big move up in April through May, then rolled back down and retested that low, spiked up last Thursday, had a very quiet inside day on Friday, and then on Monday, it popped 4.52 to 42.02, or 12%, on only 310,000 shares traded. Although the volume was light, it looks like it could make it up to 46 short-term, followed by 50.
EBay Inc. (EBAY), which we put a swing trade out on at the breakout because of the move across a 6-week resistance zone, popped on Monday, up 1.82 to 42.49, or 4.48%, on 26.7 million shares. The target on this one is up around 46.
Rosetta Genomics, Ltd. (ROSG) was the star of the day on Monday, up 4.87 to 14.30, or 51.6%, on 3.3 million shares. That's the biggest volume since the 24th of May. The declining channel was broken with a thrust, and it closed just a little off the high. Now look for a retest of the short-term, perhaps around 17 1/2, and the secondary target around 21-22.
United States Natural Gas (UNG) had a good day on Monday, up 1.14 to 18.30, or 6.64%, on 17.9 million shares. Look for a move to 19 1/2 - 19.55 zone, and if it gets through that, look for something up around 22.
Other stocks in our Charts for the Day are Allot Communications Ltd. (ALLT), Amarin Corporation (AMRN), Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARNA), Auxilium Pharmaceuticals Inc.
(AUXL), Cirrus Logic Inc. (CRUS), Dunkin' Brands Group, Inc. (DNKN), Genetic Technologies Ltd. (GENE), Glu Mobile, Inc. (GLUU), Mitek Systems Inc. (MITK), NuVasive, Inc. (NUVA), Osiris Therapeutics, Inc. (OSIR), Patrick Industries Inc. (PATK), Smart Balance, Inc (SMBL), Vringo, Inc. (VRNG).
Sinisa Persich, On Free Stock Picks: PATK, BLDR, LPX, ASPS and XPO. (TraderHr.com)
Five stocks with strong continuation patterns are Patrick Industries (PATK), Builders FirstSource (BLDR), Louisiana-Pacific Corp. (LPX), Altisource Portfolio Solutions S.A. (ASPS), and XPO Logistics (XPO).
PATK has been in a beautiful rising channel since November of last year that has taken the stock up seven-fold from 2 to over 14. Its surge on Monday of 1.24 to 14.14 took it to the top of its triangular ascending channel, positioning it to break above the resistance line from March.
BLDR similarly has risen since November of last year, in its case three-fold from the 1 1/2 area to Monday's close of 4.35. The stock has been in a sideways channel for the past three months, and its rally of nearly 10% in the last three sessions positions it against its resistance line, poised for a possible breakout.
LPX's move on Monday broke through its resistance line in the 10 area that has contained prices since March. The stock, up 10% so far in June, also is poised to continue the up-trend that has seen the stock more than double since early October.
ASPS, too, has broken through resistance with its moves of the last few sessions, up nearly 3 yesterday to 70.37, and is now at a new all-time high. The stock, which has also doubled since October, is positioned for more upside.
Lastly, XPO has edged above the top of its sideways channel in which it has consolidated over the past three months, after a surge from 7.05 in early October to 18.34 in early March. The stock, too, looks ready to continue its up-trend.