Jerome "Mel" Hickerson, On Critical Tuesday Session (MarketsPath.com)
The week began, as usual, with the Sunday night futures moving upward. As the regular session opened the futures had moderated somewhat but the SPX responded with a gap upward at the open, pulled back a bit by 10am, then legged out another upward surge. At about 10:10 a significant wave of selling hit the market and the index gave back four points before bouncing strongly at 10:30 recovering the four points plus a couple. From then into the close was mostly a boring sideways consolidating drift.
For the first of the month and a Monday, today’s session seemed to lack conviction. Rumors of merger activity and pension fund buying drove investors to purchase today, but volume continued to be light. After the gap upward, today’s trading range was only about four points.
Successfully day trading such a tight range requires perfection and luck.
This was the third consecutive session with a higher high and a higher low; breadth continues to be powerful and suggesting higher highs ahead. March has already assured that this month’s bar on the chart will have a higher high than February; this is technically significant.
The SPX, Dow, NASDAQ and Russell all moved above the previous peak from Feb. 19 giving us another high above a previous high on the daily charts.
We have managed to climb above and close above our 1084-1114 trading range, but only by a point. Tuesday’s session will be important to see if the upward momentum can push through or whether it will be rejected.
It is my thought that the first test of breaking above the range will likely be rejected, throwing us back below 1100 at least briefly. In November and early December it took several attempts to successfully punch through this range; to do so this time on the first attempt would be surprising.
For Tuesday, our model is suggesting a struggle for the SPX and we will enter the session with a mildly bearish bias.
Harry Boxer, On 4 Charts to Watch (TheTechTrader.com)
The market started off the week on a positive note and several stocks we have been following had a significant day today and charts well worth watching.
Atlas Pipeline (AHD), which we’ve been watching for awhile, broke out of a long coil in December, exploded from about 3.35 more than doubling in about a week. Since then it’s been in a slow downward drifting channel or bull flag, broke out on Friday and followed through nicely to add another 50 cents or nearly 9 percent. Volume is strong, and the stock looks like it could be headed toward my trading target around 9 short-term, and possibly 12 1/2 intermediate-term.
Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO), one of our old favorites from years ago, today had a significant technical session breaking its 5-month declining topsline, moving to lateral price resistance of a double top in January and the earlier highs in December, popping 1.16 or 21% on 2 1/3 million shares. It was a significant price-volume surge closing right near the high end of the range, an impressive day. I’ll be looking for a retest of the next resistance level tomorrow probably around 7, with the 7 3/4 zone our secondary target. A move through that would break a significant 3-year head and shoulders type bottoming pattern and could explode this stock into the 9–10 zone pretty quickly.
Pharmacyclics (PCYC) continues to act very well, up only 3 cents Monday but continuing to consolidate in a beautiful rising channel. The top of that channel measures up around 7 1/2, my next trading target, with the stock currently at 5.68.
Lastly for today is another junior energy stock, Crosstex Energy (XTEX), which popped out of a 2-month trading range or consolidation flag-type pattern. Volume exploded as well today to the heaviest in months. The stock is breaking out, and may be headed for a run at the top of the channel, which is currently around the 14 1/2–3/4 range, my next trading target.
Other stocks for you to view on Harry’s charts today are Acme Packet, Inc. (APKT), Astrotech Corp. (ASTC), Brigham Explorations (BEXP), Impax Laboratories (IPXL), MAP Pharmaceuticals (MAPP), Pacer International (PACR), Radware (RDWR), Sequenom (SQNM), US Energy (USEG).
Mike Paulenoff, On Best of Both Worlds for Gold (MPTrader.com)
The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) was up nearly 1% in pre-market Tuesday getting the best of both worlds -- higher equity prices as well as strength in the precious metals derived from dollar weakness (vs the euro) during the last two hours of pre-market trading. Let's notice that GDX is approaching its prior recovery high at 45.56, which if hurdled and sustained should trigger upside continuation towards my optimal near-term target zone of 47.30/80. At this juncture only a decline that breaks 43.00 will compromise my near-term outlook.
Jack Steiman, On Getting Through SPX 1115 (SwingTradeOnline.com)
The market is not exactly exploding higher. Rather, it's grinding. There has been no thrust upward. We're able to grind higher because of something I speak about all the time. Sentiment! The market is loaded with shorts.
Folks are scared. Not many like this market and from what I just wrote about, you can't really blame them. However, when sentiment is negative, markets tend to go higher. Add in that earnings, from stimulus or not, is getting a bit better. Yes, it's from cost cutting, etc., but it's better and the market likes the way these corporations are doing whatever it takes to provide better earnings. It's not the best of situations but with decent earnings and with negative sentiment, it's hard for the market to fall apart. Thus you see what you see day to day. I read and research and the majority of folks are bearish. That's good for equities.
I am not so confident in this market that I would leave plays on too long. This is still a hit and run market. Not my favorite market by any means. Some plays come off too soon. Take some gains and then they go higher. I don't care. if you make money I'm happy enough. Some we let run longer. Some we don't. No apologies. We are not in a rip roaring market. We are not in a throw a dart market. This market is very tough for sure and there are plenty of implosions out there on a daily basis. You have to be more than careful. Even if you are some plays can blow up in your face.
This market is still teaching some very difficult lessons to a whole lot of people. I think this market is going to hold up for a while longer but by no means do I think this is a SAFE market. The longer we hang in there the more bullish things will get. Wash, rinse and repeat. Right now I believe things go higher overall but there won't be any runaway bull here. Let's just take advantage of what the markets giving. Long is the way for now.
If we can clear this 1115 S&P 500 level then we can run to 1130/1135. As we get closer to 1151 it will become more and more difficult to find sustainable upside. Just the way it is. At least on the first try there will be intense resistance. The 1130 to 1151 area will get tougher and tougher with every point higher. I'd suggest you keep your enthusiasm at a low level. If we can ultimately take out 1151 with force then the bears are completely toast. For now, let's just deal with getting through S&P 500 1115 so we can try 1130/1135. One slow step at a time.
