Market movers ahead
The first exit polls from the Italian general election on Monday afternoon will be scrutinised to see whether Pier Luigi Bersani and Mario Monti are able to form a centre-left coalition.
Ben Bernanke is due to deliver his semi-annual testimony before the Congress and we hope his speech will spread light on his thinking about asset purchases.
We expect the US ISM to move sideways as the January tax hikes dampen demand. In China, the Lunar New Year holiday could send the PMI lower.
The key events in Scandinavia are the Riksbank minutes and Q4 GDP data from Sweden and Denmark.
The Japanese government is expected to announce its candidate to take over the job as governor of the Bank of Japan.
Global update
The recession in France appears to have deepened and the gap to Germany remains historically big.
Minutes from the January FOMC meeting showed significant disagreement on the Fed’s QE programme and increased uncertainty about the Fed’s exit strategy
Chinese house price increases and credit growth have accelerated and regulatory tightening targeted at these is increasingly likely but we do not expect monetary policy tightening at this stage.
Confidence data out of Scandinavia improved, with Sweden and Norway in the lead, while Denmark remains the laggard.
