Market movers ahead

  • Negotiations on the US fiscal cliff continue.

  • Euro Flash PMI and German ifo expected to show small improvement.

  • We look for a further rise in Chinese HSBC Flash PMI.

  • The Bank of Japan is not expected to add stimulus at next week’s meeting.

  • Q3 GDP growth in Norway is likely to have seen a deceleration to 0.5% q/q.


Global update

  • Political events took centre stage with fiscal cliff talks in the US, negotiations on Greek debt relief in Europe and the change in the Chinese leadership.

  • Uncertainty is weighing on financial markets giving a further set back in risk assets.

  • US data was more mixed this week. It is likely distortions from Hurricane Sandy played a role but uncertainty over the fiscal cliff could also be in play.

  • GDP in the euro area fell slightly in Q3 and, in our view, is likely to decline further in Q4.