Market movers ahead
Two important data releases dominate the US calendar this coming week – the ISM, released on Monday, and non-farm payrolls, due on Friday. We also intend to keep an eye on Ben Bernanke’s speech on Monday.
Minutes from the September FOMC meeting are scheduled to be released on Thursday. The minutes are of a special interest, as they could shed further light on the Fed’s motivation for QE3 and whether it is moving towards more rule-based monetary policy.
We are not expecting any new measures from the coming week’s ECB meeting.
We expect euro area unemployment to increase to a new high of 11.4%.
In China, the main focus next week is the release of the NBS manufacturing PMI on Monday. In Japan, Tankan is due to be released.
In Denmark, we expect foreign exchange reserves to attract more attention than usual. Following the latest weakening of DKK, it will be interesting to see whether the Danish Central bank has intervened in the market to support the Danish krone.
In Sweden, PMI will be in focus. In Norway, focus will be on manufacturing production.
Global update
The German Ifo index disappointed, with the lowest reading for Ifo expectations since May 2009.
Spain has presented its 2013 budget. It was pretty much as expected – if anything slightly positive. It is positive that the budget complies with the expected EU requirements. Although it will be hard for Spain to meet the 2013 deficit target, the budget should pave the way for Spain to ask for a precautionary European Stability Mechanism credit line.
