Market movers ahead

  • The ECB’s tone is likely to be slightly more positive than at the previous meeting although concerns about Greece could well remain centre stage. We will have to wait for the March meeting for new announcements on the exit strategy and an upward revision of its growth forecast.
  • In the US there is a heavy calendar with the employment report and the ISM indices taking centre stage. We expect the improvement in the manufacturing ISM to continue and for job growth to return to positive territory in January.
  • In Asia focus next week will mainly be on the release of manufacturing PMIs across Asia. Following some weakness in manufacturing PMIs in Q4 09, we expect them to have improved slightly again in January.

Global update

  • Greece’s minor debt issuance last week has not eased market fears of a possible
    Greek sovereign default. Greek yield spreads to Germany have reached new
    highs over the past week.
  • In the US this week’s FOMC statement revealed signs of movement within the
    committee with the first dissenting vote since the onset of the crisis.
  • In Japan data during the past week suggests growth in Q4 09, but slowing in early 2010.

Focus

  • With focus currently on the risk of sovereign default in Europe, we look at the possibility of a debt crisis emerging in Japan.

  • We look at the implications of changes in tax rules for Danish ‘blue-stamped’ bonds.