Global update
- Q3The rise in the oil price is a cause for concern as it jeopardises the sustainability of US
recovery. - US data was mixed with disappointments in consumer confidence and new home sales while GDP for Q3 posted a positive surprise, rising 3.5% in Q3. Markets tend to change mood frequently at the moment with the prevailing mixed picture.
- Credit constraints are about to thaw in Euroland. According to the ECB’s lending survey banks plan to ease credit to businesses in Q4.
- There are more signs that the German labour market is turning. Is unemployment really falling?
- Norges Bank was first to hike among the central banks in Europe. But it will likely take a while before they are joined by their European colleagues.
- Swedish confidence numbers delivered positive surprises.
Market movers ahead
- A busy week ahead with US ISM and non-farm payrolls taking centre stage. We look for further improvement in both.
- Central bank meetings from the Fed and the ECB will also be in the spotlight. We don’t expect significant changes in signals.
- Only few things on the Scandi agenda. Denmark releases currency reserves and retail sales. Sweden is set to post PMI data while Norway has its credit growth indicator and industrial production on schedule.
