Global Update
- Global manufacturing production data was more mixed, but did on balance improve. With regard to orders, data point to improvement in most areas.
- The service PMI improved consistently indicating a broader-based recovery in developed countries.
- In the US improving US claims and chain store sales data added some optimism about the state of the consumer.
- In the UK the lift-off in house prices continues. This will probably keep the BoE from launching further easing measures.
- The ECB and the BoE kept policy measures unchanged. Signs of increasing optimism were seen from Jean-Claude Trichet at the press conference.
Market movers ahead
- In Sweden the main event is September CPI.
- US retail sales are expected to be dragged into the red by a negative payback from the “clunkers” programme, but the report is expected to show underlying improvement.
- Germany ZEW and regional US indicators are expected to indicate further optimism.
- FOMC minutes will provide interesting detail about FOMC thinking and updated economic projections.
- Speeches from the Fed’s Kohn and Dudley and a speech by the ECB’s Trichet will be important events.
- Euroland and US inflation data will take a back seat.
- In Asia, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its target rate unchanged, but quantitative easing (QE) measures could be cut back.
