Global Update
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It has been one year since the Lehman collapse triggered the worst financial and economic crisis since the 1930s’ Depression. It has been a wild ride of initial chaos and subsequent surprisingly fast improvement.
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The Fed’s Beige Book, jobless claims and trade figures generally supported a picture of recovery. Weekly retail sales are also improving, but this is yet to be mirrored in the official monthly numbers.
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German factory orders were strong on the surface but the details revealed a temporary boost from high military orders. German industrial production disappointed.
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Chinese data was mixed. Growth in industrial production was stronger than expected in annual terms but the monthly changes show a loss of momentum. Retail sales remained robust while trade data disappointed.
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Inflation has bottomed in Denmark and exports have clearly turned the corner.
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Swedish inflation looks set to rise sharply from here.
Market movers ahead
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US retail sales will be the mover of the week. The market is still waiting for signs of a pick-up in consumer demand in the US. Housing data, CPI and regional business surveys are also scheduled for release during the week.
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In Euroland industrial production and German ZEW will be the main releases to watch out for. UK releases are retail sales and unemployment.
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Norwegian general elections and Swedish unemployment data are on the agenda in Scandi.
