Global Update
• There is growing evidence that the H2 rebound in global growth could be quite robust. We are starting to see upside risk to our current (above-consensus) global growth forecast.
• The corporate sector is leading the recovery. Revisions of US and German GDP data point to an even sharper inventory cycle, and a record strong rise in ifo expectations point to strong momentum in the German recovery.
• Capital goods orders are starting to turn globally as also witnessed by a sharp rise in US durable goods orders.
• Finally global housing indicators are improving fast with increases in both prices and sales.
Market movers ahead
• We are heading for the big week in terms of data. US ISM and non-farm payrolls will provide important news on the pace of recovery. We look for a further rise in ISM but could see slight disappointment in payrolls.
• In Euroland the ECB meeting will be the main event. We don’t expect any changes to policy measures but a slight upward revision to their growth forecasts is on the cards.
• It looks like a landslide victory for DPJ in the Japanese election. Chinese PMI data and Japanese industrial production should show continued strength.
• Danish Currency reserve data should show a further strong inflow in August.
• The Riksbank meeting will be main event in Sweden. We don’t think the Riksbank will be as hawkish as the market expects.
