Global Update
- The “double dip” camp got some extra ammunition this week as US retail sales disappointed badly. The weakness highlights the need for a turnaround in the US labour market to take away the substantial headwind.
- Germany delivered another positive surprise as GDP rose in Q2 meaning the recession has ended. The same was the case in France. We look for further recovery in the second half of the year as export growth takes off.
- China continues to show robust growth although the pace will likely be moderate in coming quarters. Both exports and imports are rising strongly at the moment.
- In Denmark industrial production disappointed, but exports show positive signs. Swedish inflation has been sticky, but inflation pressure will remain low for a long time.
Market movers ahead
- In the US the first regional business surveys for August and housing data will be in focus. A speech from Fed chairman Bernanke at Jackson hole is also on the agenda.
- Flash PMI in Euroland and German ZEW are likely to show further rises as the industrial recovery gains momentum.
- Japanese GDP is likely to show that Japan has also left the recession behind in Q2.
- In Scandinavia the main figure of interest will be Norwegian GDP.
