Global Update
- Global PMI rose further in July, pointing to more global healing.
- The past week offered encouraging news in Germany as both new orders and exports rose strongly in June. The ECB presented a very cautious view at its press conference. It will probably be sidelined for a long time.
- The Bank of England surprised by adding to its purchase programme as it remains sceptical about the improvement in the economy.
- In the US, the ‘cash for clunkers’ scheme has been increased by USD2bn. This should provide a significant boost to car sales in August. US housing data continue to improve, pointing to a very important stabilisation in the housing market.
Market movers ahead
- Next week focus turns back to the US consumer with the release of retail sales. The rise in car sales is likely to give a strong boost to headline sales. The Fed meeting will also be in focus. We do not think the Fed will increase purchases of assets as focus has shifted towards exit strategies lately.
- Euroland will release GDP data for Q2 which is likely to show another quarter of falling activity. However, this will probably be the last quarter in recession.
- In Scandi, focus will turn to industrial production data in Sweden and inflation data in all Scandi countries. Norges Bank will also announce rates but we do not expect any changes. Focus will be on the rhetoric.
