Weekly Focus will take a Summer break the next three weeks and will be back on 10 August.
Global update
- We start to see signs of life in Germany as both orders and production surprised strongly to the upside in the past week. This suggests we are on track for positive Euroland GDP growth in Q3.
- Most focus, however, is on the US consumer. A sustained recovery in 2010 requires that US consumers start spending again. The data this week gave encouraging signs of US labour market improvement, which is key to get US spending back on track. The jury is still out, though, on whether tax cuts will be saved or spent.
- IMF revised global growth higher during the past week – but not enough in our view. Expect more upward revisions in coming quarters.
Market movers ahead
- Key focus the coming week will be US retail sales. Regional business surveys (Empire and Philly Fed) and US industrial production should give more information on the manufacturing recovery.
- In Euroland the ZEW index is the only interesting number. We look for a small disappointment, despite our more positive long-term view.
- Very quiet in Scandinavia. The result of the 12mth Swedish auction and Riksbank minutes are the main events.
