Global update
- The upward revision of OECD’s global growth forecasts marks a turning in the tide. Over the past two years all revisions have been to the downside. Going forward we expect more upward revisions as we are still more positive than consensus and the international organisations.
- US data confirms a picture of improvement. Capital goods orders were stronger than expected and home sales and house prices show signs of stabilisation. A rise in jobless claims cast some doubt over the recent improvement in the labour market, though.
- Euroland Flash PMI and German ifo rose further in June, suggesting that the pace of decline in Euroland production is tapering off. Leading indicators point to further improvement going forward.
- Asian export data add further to the picture of a brisk recovery in the Asian economies.
Market movers ahead
- A busy week ahead with US ISM and nonfarm payrolls taking centre stage. We look for further improvement in both.
- The ECB meeting on Thursday will be the main event in Euroland. We don’t expect much change in the rhetoric, though, and the meeting could become a non-event. Euroland Flash CPI and M3 are also due to be released.
- In Denmark focus turns to Danish currency reserve data and first quarter GDP. We expect the currency reserve to be broadly unchanged at the current very high level.
- In Sweden focus turns to the Riksbank meeting and PMI while Norway releases retail sales, PMI, unemployment and credit indicator.
