Global update
- US retail sales rose in May, but this was down to gasoline prices. Retail sales excluding autos, gasoline and building materials were unchanged, so it was really just a case of stabilisation.
- German industrial production fell by 1.9% m/m in April, which was something of a disappointment, but the pain was eased somewhat by the upward revision of March industrial production from unchanged to growth of 0.3% m/m.
- Asia continues to forge ahead, and the past week has brought a raft of data from China. Investment growth has accelerated further, car sales are very strong, and turnover in the housing market is rising rapidly.
- There were disappointing figures for the Swedish economy, with further falls in retail sales and the activity index.
- Interest rates have climbed strongly recently, and there is the risk of a correction in the short term. But in the long term there is still the prospect of higher long yields in the USA.
Market movers ahead
- Central banks take centre stage in the coming week, with rate-setting meetings in Norway, Japan and Switzerland. We expect an unchanged policy rate and an upward revision of the interest rate path from Norges Bank. We also expect unchanged rates from the BoJ and SNB, and no further unconventional measures.
- The spotlight is also on the central bank in the USA. Speculation about the outcome of the FOMC meeting on 24 June has now kicked off, and so attention will centre on the many Fed speeches in the coming week.
- The week also brings housing market data, regional PMIs and inflation figures in the USA, while in Euroland the most interesting release is the ZEW indicator, where we expect a sharp rise in the expectations index.
