Global Update

  • Global PMI is rising faster than expected, pointing to a recovery in H2 2009. Risks to global growth are shifting to the upside for the coming quarters after a long time of downward revisions.

  • Especially Asian indicators are turning fast and we expect the strength to continue in the coming months.

  • Indicators on global housing markets are improving. Surveys of housing demand are turning up in both US, UK and Euroland. There are also tentative signs of stabilisation in house prices.

  • Credit conditions are tightening at a slower pace in the US and jobless claims confirm signs of a turn in the business cycle.

  • The EU Commission put the budget situation on the agenda again, as they forecast even higher budget deficits in Euro countries.

  • We look for further rises in risky assets and higher bond yields over the coming months as a continuation of the recovery theme.


Market movers ahead

  • Result of US bank stress tests in focus Thursday. US non farm payrolls main mover Friday.

  • Next week focus turns to US retail sales for April and Q1 GDP data in Euroland.

  • In Scandi, the focus will be on inflation data in Sweden and Norway and a number of central bank speeches in Norway.