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Mixed data, broader recovery

Fri, Oct 9 2009, 14:46 GMT
by Allan von Mehren, Steen Bocian

Danske Bank A/S


Global Update

  • Global manufacturing production data was more mixed, but did on balance improve. With regard to orders, data point to improvement in most areas.
  • The service PMI improved consistently indicating a broader-based recovery in developed countries.
  • In the US improving US claims and chain store sales data added some optimism about the state of the consumer.
  • In the UK the lift-off in house prices continues. This will probably keep the BoE from launching further easing measures.
  • The ECB and the BoE kept policy measures unchanged. Signs of increasing optimism were seen from Jean-Claude Trichet at the press conference.

Market movers ahead

  • In Sweden the main event is September CPI.
  • US retail sales are expected to be dragged into the red by a negative payback from the “clunkers” programme, but the report is expected to show underlying improvement.
  • Germany ZEW and regional US indicators are expected to indicate further optimism.
  • FOMC minutes will provide interesting detail about FOMC thinking and updated economic projections.
  • Speeches from the Fed’s Kohn and Dudley and a speech by the ECB’s Trichet will be important events.
  • Euroland and US inflation data will take a back seat.
  • In Asia, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its target rate unchanged, but quantitative easing (QE) measures could be cut back.


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