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Weekly Focus
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Is it strong enough?
Fri, Jul 3 2009, 15:00 GMT
by Allan von Mehren, Steen Bocian
Global update
- Market doubts about the sustainability of the US recovery were fuelled by disappointing US non-farm payrolls and US consumer confidence.
- It was not all bad news, though. There are more signs of global housing stabilisation and the Asian recovery is proving very strong.
- We continue to look for a stronger-than-expected rebound in global growth in H2 09 as the inventory cycle will likely prove stronger than generally anticipated. The job market is expected to improve as the economy recovers.
- The ECB meeting did not provide much news and ECB will be sidelined for a long time now. The Riksbank on the other hand still knows how to surprise. With a repo rate cut to 0.25% and the introduction of a negative deposit rate of -0.25% the Riksbank broke new ground.
Market movers ahead
- A very quiet week is ahead of us with the G8 meeting starting Thursday as the most exciting event. China will try to push the agenda with talks about a new global reserve currency.
- In US the ISM non-manufacturing is expected to rise further, but consumer confidence from University of Michigan could disappoint as higher oil prices and weaker equity markets could lead to a temporary setback in confidence.
- In Europe German factory orders and industrial production for May are likely to show a further decline before recovering later in the year. The Bank of England meeting is not expected to give any surprises.
- Focus in Scandinavia will be on inflation data.
Published on Fri, Jul 3 2009, 15:03 GMT
Archive
- Squaring positions
Published On Fri, Nov 20 2009, 16:45 GMT - German locomotive at full steam
Published On Fri, Nov 13 2009, 17:59 GMT - More short-term strength
Published On Fri, Nov 6 2009, 17:10 GMT - Mood swings
Published On Fri, Oct 30 2009, 18:31 GMT - Upbeat earnings overshadow mixed data
Published On Fri, Oct 23 2009, 17:42 GMT
Danske Bank
| Holmens Kanal 2-12, DK-1092 Copenhagen
http://www.danskebank.com/ | danskeresearch@danskebank.com
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector. This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.Related reports
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