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Is it strong enough?

Fri, Jul 3 2009, 15:00 GMT
by Allan von Mehren, Steen Bocian

Danske Bank A/S


Global update

  • Market doubts about the sustainability of the US recovery were fuelled by disappointing US non-farm payrolls and US consumer confidence.
  • It was not all bad news, though. There are more signs of global housing stabilisation and the Asian recovery is proving very strong.
  • We continue to look for a stronger-than-expected rebound in global growth in H2 09 as the inventory cycle will likely prove stronger than generally anticipated. The job market is expected to improve as the economy recovers.
  • The ECB meeting did not provide much news and ECB will be sidelined for a long time now. The Riksbank on the other hand still knows how to surprise. With a repo rate cut to 0.25% and the introduction of a negative deposit rate of -0.25% the Riksbank broke new ground.

Market movers ahead

  • A very quiet week is ahead of us with the G8 meeting starting Thursday as the most exciting event. China will try to push the agenda with talks about a new global reserve currency.
  • In US the ISM non-manufacturing is expected to rise further, but consumer confidence from University of Michigan could disappoint as higher oil prices and weaker equity markets could lead to a temporary setback in confidence.
  • In Europe German factory orders and industrial production for May are likely to show a further decline before recovering later in the year. The Bank of England meeting is not expected to give any surprises.
  • Focus in Scandinavia will be on inflation data.

Published on  Fri, Jul 3 2009, 15:03 GMT


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