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Weak growth in Euroland set to make its mark on Denmark
Fri, Aug 15 2008, 15:22 GMT
by Danske Research Team
Our worst fears were confirmed by the past week's data for the European economy. Growth in Euroland is clearly on the way down, even allowing for some of the high level of activity in Q1 being due to temporary factors (such as good winter weather for the construction industry and stockbuilding) that were partially re-versed in Q2.
The euro economies have been weakened by high inflation, the financial crisis, weaker growth in export markets and a strong currency - and growth is weak almost right across Euroland. GDP fell by 0.5% from Q1 to Q2 in Germany and by 0.3% in France and Italy, while Spain reported its lowest growth for 15 years of just 0.1%.
Economic indicators have also deteriorated substantially in Euroland. Most notably, Germany now looks set to become the last of the big euro economies to be hit hard. Indicators suggest that the economy is teetering on the brink of recession.
Bad news for the German economy is also bad news for the Danish economy, as Germany is still our largest ex-port market. Although its relative importance has declined somewhat in recent years, there is no doubt that Danish industry will be hurt when Germany comes under pressure, as the German market accounted for 17.5% of Danish goods exports in H1. Danish exports to Germany actually performed surprisingly well in Q2, climbing 14.7% (excluding oil), and have grown by 16.7% over the past year. However, even though ex-ports to Germany are still growing, it is probably only a matter of time before the slowdown in our big neighbour to the south makes its mark at home..
Published on Fri, Aug 15 2008, 15:25 GMT
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Danske Bank
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