Searching for Truth in a World of Conflicting Data
Walt Whitman wrote that “whatever satisfies the soul is truth.” A 21st century application of the famed poet's observation might be that regardless of your view of the economy, you can find support for it in recent data. But in an effort to satisfy your intellectual curiosity, if not your soul, our U.S. Review section breaks down this week’s somewhat conflicting data to help you determine what really matters to the economic outlook.
The one truth that we can be sure of is that our mantra of “slow growth, no double dip” has been the right call, and there was nothing in this week's data that changed this outlook.
Is Chinese Growth Beginning to Stabilize?
Real GDP growth in China slowed to 7.4 percent in the third quarter, the slowest rate of year-over-year growth since the global financial crisis. It appears that slowdowns in exports and investment spending have weighed on Chinese economic growth this year.
There are some tentative signs that growth may be bottoming out. However, we do not expect significant acceleration in Chinese economic activity anytime soon. Chinese authorities are trying to transition from a growth model based on supercharged investment spending to a more consumer-oriented economy.