U.S. Review

Disappointing Economic Data Continue in January
  • The economic data this week largely disappointed equity investors and missed analyst expectations.
  • Homebuilder confidence has ebbed as new home sales remain sluggish and buyer traffic has dropped since September.
  • A pull-back in the January Philly Fed index has raised concerns about the strength of the economic recovery in the first quarter.
  • Expect slower economic activity in January following robust improvement in the fourth quarter.
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Global Review

China Strengthened Further in the Fourth Quarter
  • In the fourth quarter of 2009 the Chinese economy grew at its fastest pace in two years and CPI inflation rose to a one-year high. The Chinese government also made news by taking steps to rein in credit growth.
  • In our view, the government is taking back some of the emergency measures that were put in place a year ago because they are not longer appropriate. Although we expect that growth will slow somewhat over the coming quarters, we think that the probability of a “hard landing” in China is rather low.
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