U.S. Review

The Fourth Quarter Ended on a Weak Note

    • We raised our estimate of fourth quarter real GDP growth to a 5.6 percent pace based on recent data on business inventories and international trade.
    • December economic data continue to come in below expectations. Retail sales declined 0.2 percent and sales excluding motor vehicles fell 0.3 percent.
    • The Fed’s Beige Book and the National Federation of Independent Business survey showed conditions continuing to deteriorate across much of the country.
    • Consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in December.
    inflation

    Global Review

    The British Economy Appears to be Growing Again

    • After enduring a horrific recession for six quarters it appears that real GDP growth in the United Kingdom turned positive again in the fourth quarter of 2009. Consumer spending appears to be leading the way in the recovery, but capital spending and exports may have strengthened as well.
    • The Bank of England will probably want more insurance that the incipient recovery will morph into a lasting expansion before it begins to hike rates. In our view, the Bank will wait well into the second half of the year before beginning to raise rates.
    ukgdp