U.S. Review
Recovery Still Moving Ahead
- Improvement in headline economic reports on manufacturing and employment suggest continued economic growth. For manufacturing, the gains in the ISM report reflected improvement in orders, production and employment. As for jobs, gains in temporary help and the workweek are key positive leading indicators.
- Productivity gains support our view that inflation remains low for at least the first half of next year.

Global Review
Canadian Economy Stronger than Q3 Growth Suggests- After three consecutive quarters of decline, Canada managed to eke out a small positive growth rate in the third quarter. However, a big increase in imports, which reflects strength in domestic demand, helped to depress the overall GDP growth rate. In other words, the economy is stronger than it appears on the surface.
- Although the Bank of Canada will clearly tighten policy at some point, we do not look for the first rate hike for another two or three quarters due to a high unemployment rate and benign inflation at present.








