U.S. Review

Economic Recovery: Different Pace, Different Shape

  • The leading economic index signals modest growth will continue into next year. Yet, the pace of that growth is consistent with a below-average recovery compared to the first year of prior recoveries as well as a possible longer-term downshift in trend growth.
  • Housing starts were clearly disappointing to the “V”-shaped recovery crowd. “Core” retail sales are up modestly compared to the first year of the 2002 recovery, and the outlook for holiday sales is weak. Still, inflation data which may start exceeding the market’s benign expectations suggest that we remain cautious.
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Global Review

Japanese Economy Continues to Expand

  • Real GDP in Japan rose at an annualized rate of 4.8 percent in the third quarter. Inventories and net exports made important contributions to growth, but consumer spending and capital expenditures also rose in the third quarter.
  • Japan continues to experience a mild case of deflation. The level of real GDP remains well below the peak that was reached in early 2008, and unemployment has risen to its highest rate in decades. In our view, the Bank of Japan will refrain from raising rates for the foreseeable future.
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