U.S. Review
The Wages of Unemployment
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Both the composition and pace of the recovery raises core issues for any business strategy for the year ahead.
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Longer-term and high unemployment compounds the credit/workout risks for consumer and real estate debt.
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High unemployment keeps the Fed on hold and further distorts market pricing of risk both in the global carry trade and inflation premiums. Finally, high unemployment also creates political risk as policy makers introduce more programs that put a premium on quick band-aids and not long-term cures.
Unemployment Is High and Fed Funds Are Low, and You’re Confused on Which Way to Go
Both the composition and pace of the recovery raises core issues for any business strategy for the year ahead. Straight line forecasting is out. A wide range of possibilities are in. Our November outlook reinforces the view that the pace of growth in 2010 will be below that of the first year of a typical economic recovery, and that the composition of growth will favor contributions from federal spending and inventory building with subpar performances from consumer spending and business investment.
Subpar growth, especially in the private sector (measured as private final domestic demand), will be below 2.5 percent for 2010 compared to the 3 percent plus expansion pace from 2003 to 2006. The unemployment rate, therefore, is likely to remain above 10 percent all year and monetary policy is likely to keep the federal funds rate low through the first half of the year at least. This outlook raises three risks for strategic thinking. First, longer-term and high unemployment compounds the credit/workout risks for consumer and real estate debt. Second, high unemployment will keep the Fed on hold and further distort market pricing of risk both in the global carry trade and inflation. Finally, high unemployment also creates political risk as policy makers introduce more programs that put a premium on quick band-aids and not long-term cures.
Credit and The Fed: Answers Must Come from Within
In recent weeks, mounting credit problems at the Federal Housing Agency have led to discussion of Treasury support and tighter lending standards at the Agency. Persistent credit problems are the result of persistent economic weakness—especially in job growth and thereby household income growth. Our November outlook highlights that high unemployment and weak real disposable income gains will persist in 2010 and thereby work against credit recovery.
Second, the FOMC’s latest statement emphasizes the weak economy and that the low interest rate policy will remain for a sustained period. For decision-makers this policy raises the risk that current market pricing on many assets, including Treasuries, MBS and ABS, are distorted. Moreover, concerns about a global carry trade leading to asset pricing distortions are happening on a broader scale.
Political Risk: Nobody’s Winning At this Kind of Game
Mid-term elections are coming in 2010 and the level of unemployment will be higher in November at election time than it was two years ago. Hope is not a strategy. Politicians who will seek to save their jobs will pursue quick fixes to get the unemployment rate down. This suggests a lot of targeted, make-work projects that will increase government spending and thereby larger fiscal deficits.
Our outlook is for a $1.4 trillion dollar federal deficit for 2010 and this will create further risks for decision-makers as long-term rates will become susceptible to political pressures on the Fed and the vagaries of foreign central bank support for the dollar. Volatility for both interest rates and the dollar opens the range of market outcomes that can produce uncertain performance in 2010.
Global Review
Tentative Recovery Underway in the Euro-zone
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After contracting more than five percent on a peak-to-trough basis, real GDP in the Euro-zone rose 1.5 percent (annualized) on a sequential basis in the third quarter. However, it would be misleading to characterize the tentative recovery as truly self-sustaining yet because available evidence suggests that consumer spending remains weak.
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Germany, France and Italy all posted positive growth rates. However, real GDP in Spain, which is suffering from its burst housing bubble, continued to contract for the sixth consecutive quarter.
Positive Growth Returns to the Euro-zone
Preliminary data show that real GDP in the Euro-zone rose 0.4 percent (1.5 percent at an annualized rate) in the third quarter relative to the second quarter (see graph on front page). Although the outturn was a bit weaker than the market consensus forecast had anticipated, the positive growth rate was not much of a surprise. The previously reported 2.2 percent increase in industrial production that occurred in the third quarter suggested that overall GDP growth had turned positive as well.
A breakdown of the GDP data into its underlying demand components for the entire euro area will not be available for a few weeks, but monthly indicators suggest that recovery is not yet truly self-sustaining. Inventories fell sharply in the second quarter, so some of the bounce-back in real GDP in the third quarter likely reflects less rapid inventory liquidation. An inventory cycle can help to lift growth for a quarter or two. For the recovery to become truly self-sustaining, however, final sales would need to rise. And on that score, the jury is still out.
The good news is that monthly data through August indicate that exports likely rebounded in the third quarter. The recoveries that are starting to take hold in some of the Euro-zone’s trading partners are showing up as stronger exports. However, imports appear to have remained depressed in the third quarter, which reflects the underlying weakness of domestic demand.
Real personal consumption expenditures edged up in the second quarter, but the result was flattered by “cash for clunkers” programs in some large countries in the Euro-zone. Moreover, monthly retail sales data indicate that the underlying pace of consumer spending remained weak in the third quarter. “Hard” data from France, the only major Euro-zone economy to have provided a breakdown of the GDP data, showed that real consumer spending grew only 0.2 percent on a sequential basis. Although they have not yet provided details, German statistical authorities indicated that personal consumption expenditures in that country were weak in the third quarter.
Most individual economies posted positive growth rates in Q3. Among the major economies, Germany led the pack with a 0.7 percent increase (top chart). The Italian economy expanded 0.6 percent, and output in France grew 0.3 percent. However, real GDP in Spain, which is suffering from the hangover of its burst housing bubble, fell 0.3 percent, the sixth consecutive quarter in which the economy contracted (middle chart).











