U.S. Review
Public Policy Shapes the Recovery
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September’s 1.0 percent rise in the Leading Economic Index offers insight into next week’s first look at Q3 GDP. The LEI is up at an 11.8 percent annual rate over the past six months, the strongest gain since 1983.
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Hopes that the recovery will rival the rebound from the 1981-2 recession will likely be disappointing—the growth mix is heavily weighted toward one-hit wonders like cash for clunkers and the first-time homebuyer tax credit.
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Hiring plans and hours worked remain depressed as businesses weigh risks of healthcare reform, cap and trade legislation and less friendly business conditions.
After a Strong Start, Momentum will Fade
The Leading Economic Index rose a full percentage point in September, as eight of the ten indicators increased. The largest contributors were a wider interest rate spread, increased consumer expectations, and a decline in weekly unemployment claims. By contrast, the average workweek and building permits both declined. With September’s increase, the LEI has risen for six consecutive months and is up at an 11.8 percent annual rate over that time period. This marks the strongest six-month pace for the LEI since August 1983, when the U.S. economy was in the midst of one of its strongest recoveries ever.
Hopes for another strong recovery appear to us to be considerably overblown. Much of the improvement in the LEI has come from the financial indicators and expectations for future economic conditions. The historic drawdown in inventories is also apparent in the LEI, showing up as a slower pace of deliveries. The closer you get to actual economic conditions, however, the less buoyant the figures look. Orders for consumer goods and nondefense capital goods show relatively little improvement and the average factory workweek’s only real increase was in July, when motor vehicle output was restarted.
The coincident economic index, which measures current economic performance, was unchanged in September, following 0.1 percent gains in July and August. Continued declines in nonfarm payrolls and little to no growth in personal income and business sales are being offset by rising motor vehicle output. Increased motor vehicle output has lifted industrial production solidly over the past three months, benefitting a whole host of other industries ranging from steel to semiconductors. Without the lift from motor vehicle output, the improvement in industrial production would be imperceptible and the coincident economic index would still be negative.
One area where there has been real improvement has been jobless claims. Weekly first-time unemployment claims peaked back in March and are currently down 21 percent from their high. Unfortunately, unemployment claims remain extremely high. Claims rose 11,000 during the latest week to 531,000. First-time unemployment claims averaged 532,250 over the past four weeks, which means that roughly 2,129,000 jobs were lost last month. Hiring remains well below that level, which means nonfarm employment likely posted another hefty decline during October.
Another area of improvement has been housing. Housing starts rose 0.5 percent in September and have now risen for five of the past six months. All of the improvement has been in single-family homes, which have risen in six of the past seven months. Much of that increase is being attributed to the $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers, which expires on November 30. Since home purchases must be closed by November 30, the impact of the tax credit on new home construction has likely passed. We expect home construction to stall out near current levels or even give back some of its recent gains. A sustainable rise in home construction will require tangible improvement in the labor market, which we have yet to see.
Global Review
U.K. Economy Slumps for Sixth Consecutive Quarter
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U.K. GDP data that were released this week, which indicated that the British economy had contracted for the sixth consecutive quarter, were disappointing. Not only did the manufacturing and construction sectors weaken further, the service sector also posted a modest decline.
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The weaker-than-expected outturn raises the probability that the Bank of England will increase the size of its asset purchase program at next month’s policy meeting. If so, sterling could encounter some selling pressure as the money supply rises further.
News released this week that real GDP in the United Kingdom slumped 0.4 percent (not annualized) in the third quarter relative to the previous quarter was very disappointing. Not only was the outturn much worse that expected—the consensus forecast had looked for a modest increase—but the data show that the economy is now about 6 percent smaller than it was when it peaked in the first quarter of 2008. The news came as a surprise because the purchasing managers’ indices had suggested that the economy was expanding modestly (top graph). In addition, previously released data on consumer confidence, which rose to its highest level since April 2008, and the volume of retail sales had suggested that real personal consumption expenditures had grown somewhat in the third quarter.
A detailed breakdown of real GDP into its underlying demand components will not be available for a few more weeks. However, preliminary data suggest that construction spending and industrial production were notably weak in the third quarter. British statistical authorities said that the former fell 1.1 percent and the latter was off 0.7 percent. Relative to last year, industrial production is down more than 10 percent (middle chart). Output in the service sector also appears to have contracted modestly.
One way to square the apparent growth in retail spending with the decline in overall GDP is via inventories. That is, British producers may still be slashing production to bring stocks back in line with final sales. If the soon-to-be-released demand-side components indicate that de-stocking did indeed weigh heavily on real GDP in the third quarter, then there may be a silver lining in the data. Namely, inventories may boost GDP over the next few quarters as the pace of de-stocking eases. Moreover, recoveries that appear to be underway in other parts of the world should eventually translate into stronger exports. The recent weakness of sterling, especially against the euro, should also help to bolster British exports (bottom chart).
What are the implications of the weaker-than-expected GDP data for Bank of England monetary policy going forward? The minutes of the Bank’s policy meeting in early October showed that all nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep the Bank’s main policy rate at 0.50 percent, where it has been maintained since early March. In addition, the MPC decided to keep the size of its unconventional asset purchase program unchanged at £175 billion. However, the minutes also indicate that the MPC would revisit the size of the asset purchase program next month when the quarterly Inflation Report is prepared.
In our view, the disappointing GDP data raises the probability that the MPC will increase the size of its asset purchase program. Until a self-sustaining recovery is underway, the MPC may err on the side of additional monetary stimulus. If the MPC does indeed announce plans next month to step up its purchases of government and corporate bonds, which would have the effect of further increasing the U.K. money supply, the British pound could come under some selling pressure.










