U.S. Review
Cost Cutting Our Way Back to Prosperity
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Earnings continue to come in at or above expectations, with cost cutting producing more than enough savings to offset declining revenues. The better than expected earning news helped send the Dow above 9,000 on Thursday.
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More folks are also buying into the notion that the recession is ending. The Leading Economic Index rose 0.7 percent in June, marking the third consecutive increase.
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Existing home sales rose 3.6 percent in June, marking the third consecutive increase. Prices rose slightly and the months’ supply of home on the market declined for the second straight month.
Slow But Steady Progress Is a Good Thing
Second quarter earnings announcements overshadowed this past week’s relatively light schedule of economic reports. Earnings have generally beaten expectations, with cost cutting more than offsetting disappointing news on revenues. The emphasis on cost cutting is evident in the economic data but may be easing a bit. Layoffs have clearly slowed, as evidenced by the declines in both weekly first-time unemployment claims and continuing claims for unemployment insurance. In addition, mass layoff announcements tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics also show some tentative signs of topping out. While layoffs may have peaked, hiring shows no sign of picking up. We do not expect businesses to boost hiring until they see some evidence sales are growing again and order backlogs are rising.
One unambiguously positive bit of economic news this week was the 0.7 percent rise in the Leading Economic Index. The increase marks the third consecutive significant gain for LEI, which in the past has tended to signal a turn in the business cycle. The ratio of the coincident to lagging indicators, which is an alternative measure of business cycle turning points, also rose solidly in June, climbing 0.4 percent. The coincident to lagging index has risen 1.3 percentage points since bottoming in March. The breadth of the increase in the LEI adds credence to the notion that we are at a turning point in the business cycle. Seven of the ten leading economic indicators improved during each of the past three months.
Another clear, positive sign the economy is on the mend is the continued flow of better news on the housing sector. Sales of existing homes rose 3.6 percent in June to a 4.89 million unit pace, marking the third consecutive monthly increase. The National Association of Realtors reported that the foreclosures and short sales accounted for only 31 percent of sales in June, which may explain the improvement in average and median home prices. The supply of homes on the market declined slightly, falling to 9.4 months. While good news on the housing market is clearly welcome, there are concerns that a considerable backlog of foreclosed properties and homes likely headed for foreclosure will hit the market later this year and in 2010.
The federal minimum wage rose to $7.25 per hour today, marking the third installment of a 70 cents per hour increase enacted back in 2007. The increase in the minimum wage comes at a difficult time for many businesses, which have seen sales slump and orders decline. Businesses are much more focused on cost cutting right now rather than expanding operations or adding staff. This is particularly true of restaurants and retailers, where the vast majority of minimum wage workers are employed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics notes that roughly 2.5 percent of workers paid hourly earn the minimum wage or less. Among those earning the minimum wage, most tend to be young, with about half the workers below age 25 and about one-quarter being teenagers. Coincidently, the teenage unemployment rate has skyrocketed since the first phase of the most recent hike in the minimum wage took effect two years ago.
Global Review
The Great Melt-Up?
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Stronger data came out of Asia and North America this week. Large and frontloaded fiscal packages are a major factor here, as is the fact that the severe production cuts we saw in Q4 of last year are just not sustainable longer term. The inevitable bounce eventually ensues.
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European data also surprised on the upside. Eurozone manufacturing and service PMIs for July both came in well above expectations, bolstering the case that the global recession is easing. Adding to the euphoria, U.K. retail sales surged in June and French business confidence strengthened again in July.
The firmer tone in economic activity continued to build across the globe. We saw notably stronger economic data in Asia, North America and Europe this week. South Korea reported GDP in the second quarter jumped 2.3 percent. At a seasonally-adjusted annual rate, as GDP is often reported in the U.S., the increase becomes 9.7 percent, in line with the Bank of Korea’s estimate at the beginning of the month. The GDP increase was broadbased, with private consumption clearly responding to stimulus measures, rising 3.3 percent quarter-over-quarter. Gross fixed investment jumped 2.9 percent and exports of goods and services expanded at an 11.2 percent pace.
In North America, Canadian retail sales for May surged 1.2 percent on the month, twice the consensus estimate prior to the release. This followed an upwardly revised decline in April of 0.6 percent. Auto sales paved the way with a healthy 2.4 percent gain, but seven of eight retail categories also registered sales increases on the month. Building and outdoor home supply store sales rose 1.0 percent on the month and have risen now for two consecutive months.
Even the United Kingdom reported stronger retail sales. June retail sales jumped 1.2 percent month-over-month compared to consensus expectations of a modest 0.4 percent gain. Retail sales in the United Kingdom have hardly lost a step in this recession so far. Year-on-year retail sales are up 2.9 percent. Analysts attributed the gain to a bout of warm weather and the impact of the temporary 2.5 percent cut in the VAT from 17.5 percent to 15.0 percent for stoking consumers’ animal spirits and getting them to part with their cash. The VAT tax reduction has been in effect since December of last year and will remain in place until December of this year. The drop in energy prices is helping to boost real incomes and consumer discretionary spending power.
U.K. vehicle sales were strong, with a government car- scrapping scheme effectively propping up new car sales. Prime Minister Brown recently credited the car-scrapping scheme for boosting car sales by over 120K vehicles. However, the market has its doubts about the reliability of these data. U.K. consumer spending and retail sales data have been moving in opposite directions since Q4 2008. There have been changes to the methodology that are supposed to reduce the growth rate of the retail sales data. So far, this does not appear evident in the releases.
Eurozone PMIs for July confirmed the improving global economic outlook. The July manufacturing PMI jumped to 46.0 from 43.6. Consensus was looking for 44.1. This is the fifth increase in a row with gains seen in Germany and France. The service PMI increased to 45.6 from 44.7. Both indexes are still below the 50 level that would signal outright expansion, but at this point, we will take what we can get. In addition, Germany’s Ifo index for July jumped to 87.3 in July from 85.9.







