U.S. Review
The Stage is Set for at Least a Technical Rebound
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Production and inventory cuts during the first half of 2009 were likely a bit overdone and production is expected to bounce back during the second half of the year, leading to growth in real GDP.
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The unusual timing of motor vehicle assembly plant shutdowns is wreaking havoc with the economic indicators, leading to exaggerated declines in weekly first-time unemployment claims.
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Swings in inventories and international trade may produce surprisingly robust GDP numbers. Final demand is still weak, however, and hiring has not seemed to picked up.
Economic Conditions Remain Stressed
The past week’s full plate of economic indicators provided a clearer perspective of where we are in the recovery process. Businesses slashed production and inventories during the first half of 2009 and likely overdid it. Motor vehicle production, for example, was slashed to around a 3.5 million unit rate during the second quarter. Production is now set to ramp up to a 6.5 million unit pace. While that level still pales in comparison to its year ago level, the quarterly swing will lift output across the spectrum. A few steel producers have already announced plans to restart blast furnaces, and other supporting industries, including semiconductors, are reporting some improvement.
This same process appears to be playing out in the housing market. Starts of single-family homes tumbled to modern era lows in January and February, as builders were unable to get credit to start new projects. The drop in housing starts earlier this year brought construction below the historic levels of teardowns, or net removals from the housing stock. While reduced levels of homebuilding are needed in order to bring the supply of homes back in line with demand, those earlier cutbacks in starts were likely too much. As a result, single-family starts have risen in each of the past four months. The level of homebuilding still remains incredibly distressed but the lows for the cycle have likely been hit and conditions are likely to get marginally better for homebuilders over the next few quarters.
What appears to be playing out is the end of the remarkably long multi-year drawdown in real inventories. Our forecast for the second quarter calls for inventories to drop by around $100 billion, which would subtract 0.4 percentage points from second quarter real GDP. Some forecasts, however, call for much larger declines than that and inventory liquidations could easily shave a full percentage point off of second quarter real GDP. The latest business inventory data show inventories falling 1.0 percent in May, following a downwardly revised 1.3 percent drop in April. The swing in motor vehicle output that we noted earlier will cause inventories to fall much less in the third quarter, which means that inventories will likely add two percentage points or more to real GDP growth during the third quarter.
While the economy may technically expand during the third quarter nearly all the improvement will likely come from the swing in inventories. Final demand is not improving. The latest retail sales numbers show spending rising 0.6 percent in June, with a slight rise in motor vehicle sales and higher gasoline prices accounting for all of the increase. Core retail sales, which excludes motor vehicles, gasoline and building materials, fell 0.1 percent in June and declined at a 2.7 percent annual rate during the second quarter. This core category of retail sales has the strongest correlation with personal consumption expenditures. The latest figures suggest that our estimate of a 0.6 percent decline during the second quarter is likely too strong. Without any improvement in final demand, the rebound in production we are expecting for the third quarter will not be sustainable, setting us up for a decline in output this fall.
Global Review
Indications of Stronger Growth in Asia Confirmed
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As recent monthly data had indicated, real GDP growth in China strengthened in the second quarter due, at least in part, to the effects of policy stimulus. Although the recent surge in credit growth raises some interesting long-term issues, the relaxation of lending restrictions certainly has helped to stimulate the Chinese economy.
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Real GDP in Singapore rebounded in the second quarter. The city-state is one of the most open economies in the world, and the return of global trade over the past few months has helped to stimulate the Singaporean economy.
Indications of Stronger Growth in Asia Confirmed
Economic data over the past few months seemed to suggest that growth in Asia was strengthening, which was confirmed this week by real GDP data for the second quarter. For example, the year-over-year rate of real GDP growth in China rose from 6.1 percent in the first quarter to 7.9 percent in the second quarter (see chart on front page). In response to the global financial crisis last autumn, the Chinese government took rapid and aggressive steps to ensure that economic growth would remain reasonably supported. The recent upturn in China shows that their efforts are working. Moreover, the quarter appears to have ended on a strong note as growth in industrial production rose to 10.7 percent in June from 8.9 percent in May.
Not only did the government loosen the fiscal taps via modest tax cuts and a large infrastructure spending program, but it relaxed lending restrictions that were put in place in early 2008. Indeed, lending growth has surged over the past few months (top chart). Although rapid growth in lending raises some interesting long-run issues, the recent surge in credit has certainly helped to stimulate the economy (for further reading, see “Is China the Next Bubble?” which is posted on our website).
Inflation is a lagging indicator, so it would be premature to expect the recent acceleration in economic activity to show up as higher inflation. Indeed, consumer prices in China have been falling on a year-over-year basis for the past few months (middle chart). Not only are food prices lower relative to last year at this time, but non-food prices have also declined. If, as we expect, Chinese growth strengthens further in the quarters ahead, then non-food prices will start to rise again. However, runaway inflation in China is very unlikely, at least in the foreseeable future.
In Singapore, real GDP declined 3.7 percent in the second quarter relative to the same quarter in 2008 (bottom chart). Not only was the year-over-year rate of contraction much less severe than in the first quarter, but real GDP shot up at an annualized rate of 20 percent on a sequential basis. Singapore is one of the most open economies in the world, and real GDP can exhibit large fluctuations on a quarter-by-quarter basis as exports and imports rise and fall.
Not only did manufacturing activity in the Lion City strengthen, which reflects, at least in part, a rebound in exports, but activity in the service sector also picked up. Regarding exports, the value of non-oil exports, which went into freefall late last year, rose about eight percent (non-annualized) in the second quarter relative to the first quarter. Notably, exports of electronics and pharmaceuticals strengthened in the second quarter. As noted above, Singapore is very open to trade flows. The recent increase in global trade, if sustained, which we believe it will be, should continue to boost real GDP growth in Singapore in the quarters ahead.











