U.S. Review
Structural Issues Impede Recovery
Suddenly many of those “green shoots” that gathered so much attention a few weeks ago appear to be losing some of their bloom. One of this week’s major disappointments was a larger-than-expected drop in retail sales. Overall retail sales fell 0.4 percent in April and sales excluding the volatile motor vehicle sector fell 0.5 percent. Moreover, declines for March were somewhat worse than first reported.
Gains in retail sales in January and February had raised hopes that the worst was over. Consumer spending actually posted a modest inflation-adjusted gain in the first quarter. We had warned back in late March that is was too soon to buy into a stabilization of retail sales. Much of the improvement in January and February was merely a statistical artifact, reflecting a smaller than usual decline following an unusually weak holiday season. Overall retail sales in April fell 0.4 percent, following a 1.3 percent drop the prior month. Part of April’s drop was attributable to falling gasoline prices. Sales at gasoline stations fell 2.3 percent in April.
Automotive Cutbacks Will Pull Unemployment Even Higher
Retail sales also fell sharply at grocery stores, with outlays falling 1.0 percent in April. The decline marks the third significant drop in sales in the past three months and has pulled down sales at food stores to just a 1.3 percent gain over the past year. Food prices have been moderating, which may explain part of this drop. Consumers are also becoming thrifty by shifting more purchases to store brands and private labels. In addition, consumers are buying more groceries from warehouse clubs and discount stores.
Spending in the more discretionary categories was weak pretty much across the board. Sales at furniture stores fell 0.5 percent in April, following a 2.3 percent drop in March. Over the past year, sales at furniture stores were down 14.3 percent. Sales at electronics chain stores fell 2.8 percent in April, following a 7.8 percent drop in March. For the year, sales at electronics stores are down 11.9 percent. Clothing stores also had another tough month, with sales falling 0.5 percent. Sales also declined slightly at department stores and non-store retailers.
Consumers should catch a bit of a break in coming months. Energy prices remain well-below their year-ago level and food prices are finally beginning to moderate. Lower prices for groceries and gasoline should put a few more dollars in consumers’ pockets and free up some additional resources for discretionary purchases.
In the near term, the weakness in retail sales pours cold water on the notion the recession is ending. We continue to believe the worst is over but do not see the recession ending until this fall. Consumers simply do not have the wherewithal to increase spending in a major way. Unemployment continues to rise and cutbacks in the auto sector are just beginning to impact the data. Weekly unemployment claims rose 36,000 to 637,000 in the latest week, with most of the increase due to motor vehicle plant layoffs.
Cutbacks in the automobile industry will intensify over the next few weeks, as General Motors joins Chrysler shutting most of their production facilities and notifying dealers their contracts will not be renewed. We expect unemployment claims to surge to new cycle highs in coming weeks, as layoffs spread to suppliers and supporting industries. Continuing unemployment claims posted another large increase, rising to 6.5 million. The increase pushed the insured unemployment rate to 4.9 percent, marking the tenth consecutive weekly increase. The entire gain has shown up in the overall jobless rate. The overall unemployment rate should rise from 8.9 percent in April to 9.3 percent in May and there is considerable risk to the upside over the next few months.
Global Review
Relapse in China?
If there has been a country this year where bona fide “green shoots” of recovery have been spotted it would have to be China. For example, the manufacturing PMI has stood in expansion territory over the past two months, and construction activity appears to be picking up. Therefore, it was a bit disappointing to see the year-over-year growth rate of industrial production decline from 8.3 percent in March to 7.3 percent in April (see chart at left). Have “green shoots” in China turned into brown weeds?
It’s difficult to pinpoint the exact reason for the slowdown in industrial production growth in April, but exports may be part of the explanation. Exports, which contracted at a year-over-year rate of 17.1 percent in March, fell 22.6 percent in April (see chart on top of page 4). Continued contraction, albeit at slower rates, appears to be occurring in most major economies thus far in the second quarter. Therefore, it is not a huge surprise that Chinese export growth remains weak.
Weak Exports, Strong Domestic Spending
In contrast to weak export data, the domestic part of the Chinese economy appears to be holding up fairly well. The year-over-year growth rate in nominal retail spending held steady at nearly 15 percent in April (see middle chart). With overall consumer prices declining 1.5 percent in April, the rate of growth in real consumption seems to be holding up very well indeed. In addition, total fixed investment spending in the first four months of 2009 was up 30 percent relative to the same period last year, which represents the strongest rate of expansion in three years.
Strength in domestic spending probably reflects, at least in part, the government’s efforts to stimulate the economy. Acceleration in infrastructure spending that was announced late last year is showing up in stronger growth in fixed investment spending. In addition, the relaxation of lending restrictions, which were put in place last year when inflation was deemed to be “public enemy #1”, appears to be helping construction spending. Various tax cuts that were enacted late last year are probably contributing to the resilience in consumer spending.
Despite the slowdown in industrial production growth in April, we think it would be premature to write off the Chinese economic expansion that seemed to be a surer bet just a few weeks ago. If rates of contraction in foreign economies continue to slow, which we believe they will, the downturn in Chinese exports should also level out. In addition, macroeconomic stimulus will continue to shore up the economy for the next few quarters. That said, we will be watching Chinese economic data very closely in the months ahead for any signs of slowing in the pace of overall GDP growth.
After allowing the renminbi to strengthen 10 percent versus the dollar between July 2007 and July 2008, the Chinese government has subsequently held the exchange rate steady (see bottom chart). Until the Chinese government is comfortable that foreign economies have hit bottom and will start to grow again, it likely will permit very little renminbi appreciation. Therefore, we project that the exchange value of the Chinese currency vis-à-vis the dollar will remain essentially steady through year end.











