U.S. Review
A Few Good Numbers
Economists explain away economic reports that run contrary to their own forecasts and analysis. In many cases the explanations offered by economists make perfect sense. They explain the perverse effects that seasonal adjustment, odd weather patterns or other quirks in the collection and reporting of data can often have on economic indicators. This past week’s rush of more upbeat reports was no exception, with better news on home sales, housing prices and durable goods orders readily dismissed. We think such a quick dismissal is a mistake. There is no doubt the recent run of more upbeat reports has been exaggerated by numerous unusual factors. Changes in the tone of such a wide variety of economic reports, however, generally tend to mark a change in the economy’s underlying momentum. Such a change is not unexpected. We have long held that the fourth quarter of last year and first quarter of this year would mark the darkest hours of the recession. The more recent data are consistent with this view and suggest that the pace of economic decline will moderate this spring.
Global Review
New Reserve Currency?
The governor of China’s central bank made a bit of a stir this week when he called for a new currency to eventually replace the dollar as the world’s predominant reserve currency. As shown in the chart at the left, the world held more than $6 trillion worth of foreign exchange reserves at the end of 2007. Although the greenback’s share has declined a bit over the past few years, approximately two-thirds of total foreign exchange reserves are still held in dollars. The slide in the value of the dollar since 2002 (see chart at top of page 4) has eroded the purchasing power of many country’s foreign exchange reserves. For a country like China, which holds about $2 trillion worth of reserves (see middle chart on page 4), the decline in the value of the dollar is not an insignificant issue. Is the greenback about to be dethroned in favor of another currency?







