Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary

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Recovery Yes, But at What Pace? Jobs?
Fri, Oct 30 2009, 18:52 GMT
by Wachovia Research Team
Wells Fargo Investments, LLC
U.S. Review
GDP: Recovery Yes, But at What Pace? Jobs?
- This week’s GDP report signals recovery. Federal spending, as well as tax credit programs for housing and autos, were big positives. The issue going forward will be what the sustainable pace of growth is once the fiscal and monetary stimulus goes away.
- Once again, a jobless recovery appears to be the story for at least the next three months. This pattern where jobs lag growth has become the norm in recent cycles. This suggests that personal income growth and thereby consumer spending will be improve slowly and be subpar relative to the past..
Growth Improves, Final Sales Build Case for Recovery—Recovery is Here, Just Hold the Champagne for Now Third quarter GDP rose 3.5 percent with significant positive contributions from personal consumption, housing, federal spending and inventories. For consumption and housing the improvements reflect tax credit programs. Inventory gains also added nearly one percentage point. Therefore, final sales continue to improve and this provides the underlying demand for growth. However, our expectations are for moderate growth—not a boom.
Sustainable consumer spending requires income and thereby job and wage gains. The latest jobless claims data suggest that jobs remain scarce and that wage gains are likely to be very limited as well. Residential investment and equipment spending are also expected to gradually improve. Federal spending stimulus will also add to growth in the fourth quarter this year and the first quarter next year. Therefore, our expectation is that the recovery is sustainable and we anticipate that growth will be at 2.4 percent next year. Inflation remained low in the third quarter with the core PCE deflator up just 1.4 percent, which should allow the Fed to leave the funds rate unchanged for now.
Jobs: Lagging the Recovery Again? Jobless claims remain stubbornly high at 530,000 consistent with continued jobs losses in the fourth quarter. The emerging pattern in recent economic recoveries is that jobs increasingly lag the recovery. In part, productivity gains in manufacturing have allowed businesses to build output and put existing equipment and plants to work without adding workers right away. Firms hoard skilled labor in a recession and therefore keep workers on the payroll even if they are not always busy. Firms do this because of their concerns about the cost and availability of skilled labor as the recovery begins. For the outlook, the jobs issue becomes an income issue and therefore a challenge to getting the economy up to speed. With weak consumer income gains the pace of consumer spending is also likely to be limited. Our view is that real disposable income will grow just 1.2 percent in 2010 compared to 2.2 percent in 2007. We expect personal consumption to rise just one percent in 2010 compared to 2.6 percent in 2007. Such modest gains in consumer incomes and spending suggest that the demand for auto and mortgage credit will also be subdued relative to the past. This has been noted in the Senior Loan Officer Surveys published by the Fed.
Fundamental Rethink for America?
For our society, modest gains in housing and autos may be reflecting a longer-term change in consumer habits. The deleveraging/increased saving by the consumer suggests that the pace of consumer spending may indicate a slower pace of gains in local property taxes and state income taxes—clearly a challenge to state and local budgets. Slower housing starts and more modest home price appreciation suggests a challenge to the massive housing/home improvement/suburbanization infrastructure that America has built up since World War II. The pace of gains for income and jobs in many states may have to be rethought if the American consumer adopts, or is forced to adopt, a more financially conservative hair shirt..
Global Review
Sustainable Recovery in Korea Appears to be Underway
- Real GDP in South Korea rose at an annualized rate of 12.3 percent in the third quarter, the second consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Although the outturn was flattered by less de-stocking, which cannot lift GDP indefinitely, a self-sustaining recovery appears to be taking hold in Korea.
- Will authorities tighten policy now that prospects for continued growth appear favorable? Benign inflation means that the central bank does not need to slam on the brakes, but we look for it to begin normalizing rates early next year.
Sustainable Recovery in Korea Appears to be Underway
Data released this week showed that real GDP in Korea rose at an annualized rate of 12.3 percent in the third quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter in which the Korean economy has expanded at a double-digit rate (see graph on front page). At first glance, one could dismiss the strong growth in the third quarter as nothing more than a short-lived inventory swing. Korean businesses slashed inventories earlier this year when they were convinced that the economy was on the cusp of a very deep recession, but they ended up cutting too deeply. Although businesses continued to pare stocks in the third quarter, the less rapid pace of inventory liquidation helped to lift GDP growth by more than 11 percentage points. Won’t the economy roll over again when the frenetic pace of restocking comes to an end?
Probably not, because a closer look at the GDP details shows that a sustainable recovery appears to be taking hold. For starters, consumer spending grew nearly six percent during the third quarter, which follows the 16 percent increase registered in the previous quarter. A widely followed measure of consumer confidence has shot up since the spring as the labor market has started to recover. Earlier this year, employment growth was negative on a year-over-year basis. However, payrolls are starting to increase again, helping to boost income. After reaching an eight year high of 4.0 percent in June, the unemployment rate has subsequently declined steadily.
In addition, growth in fixed investment spending was up nearly four percent in the third quarter. Some of the increase likely reflects temporary infrastructure spending that the government has put in place, but private sources of investment appear to be recovering. Construction spending edged lower in the third quarter, which represents some payback for strength observed during the two previous quarters, but business spending on machinery and equipment rebounded in the third quarter. Moreover, economic recovery in the rest of the world, especially in other Asian countries, to which Korea sends 50 percent of its exports, is helping to stimulate growth in Korea. On a year-over-year basis, real export growth has now returned to positive territory (middle chart). The sequential GDP growth rate in the third quarter would have been even stronger had imports not shot up 30 percent.
Growth in Korea clearly will slow in the quarters ahead. No economy, especially an advanced one like Korea’s, can continue to post double-digit growth rates ad infinitum. As noted above, however, a self-sustaining recovery appears to be taking hold, and we look for solid Korean GDP growth over the next two years. So will prospects of continued growth cause Korean authorities to tighten policy? The global economic meltdown led the Bank of Korea (BoK) to slash its main policy rate from 5.50 percent to 2.00 percent between October 2008 and February 2009. Although the BoK won’t cut any further, a rate hike doesn’t look imminent either with the rate of CPI inflation currently benign (bottom chart). That said, most analysts, we included, look for the BoK to begin normalizing rates by early next year.
Published on
Fri, Oct 30 2009, 19:05 GMT
Archive
- Different Pace, Different Shape
Published On Fri, Nov 20 2009, 19:29 GMT
- The Wages of Unemployment
Published On Mon, Nov 16 2009, 09:52 GMT
- Almost Everything Is Improving Except Hiring
Published On Mon, Nov 9 2009, 06:41 GMT
- Recovery Yes, But at What Pace? Jobs?
Published On Fri, Oct 30 2009, 18:52 GMT
- Public Policy Shapes the Recovery
Published On Mon, Oct 26 2009, 10:33 GMT
[ View All ]
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Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
Recently, the stock market has experienced high levels of volatility. If you are thinking about participating in fast moving markets, please take the time to read the information below. Wells Fargo Investments, LLC will not be restricting trading on fast moving securities, but you should understand that there can be significant additional risks to trading in a fast market. We've tried to outline the issues so you can better understand the potential risks.
If you're unsure about the risks of a fast market and how they may affect a particular trade you've considering, you may want to place your trade through a phone agent at 1-800-TRADERS. The agent can explain the difference between market and limit orders and answer any questions you may have about trading in volatile markets.
Higher Margin Maintenance Requirements on Volatile Issues
The wide swings in intra-day trading have also necessitated higher margin maintenance requirements for certain stocks, specifically Internet, e-commerce and high-tech issues. Due to their high volatility, some of these stocks will have an initial and a maintenance requirement of up to 70%. Stocks are added to this list daily based on market conditions. Please call 1-800-TRADERS to check whether a particular stock has a higher margin maintenance requirement.
Please note: this higher margin requirement applies to both new purchases and current holdings. A change in the margin requirement for a current holding may result in a margin maintenance call on your account.
Fast Markets
A fast market is characterized by heavy trading and highly volatile prices. These markets are often the result of an imbalance of trade orders, for example: all "buys" and no "sells." Many kinds of events can trigger a fast market, for example a highly anticipated Initial Public Offering (IPO), an important company news announcement or an analyst recommendation. Remember, fast market conditions can affect your trades regardless of whether they are placed with an agent, over the internet or on a touch tone telephone system.
In Fast Markets service response and account access times may vary due to market conditions, systems performance, and other factors.
Potential Risks in a Fast Market
"Real-time" Price Quotes May Not be Accurate
Prices and trades move so quickly in a fast market that there can be significant price differences between the quotes you receive one moment and the next. Even "real-time quotes" can be far behind what is currently happening in the market. The size of a quote, meaning the number of shares available at a particular price, may change just as quickly. A real-time quote for a fast moving stock may be more indicative of what has already occurred in the market rather than the price you will receive.
Your Execution Price and Orders Ahead
In a fast market, orders are submitted to market makers and specialists at such a rapid pace, that a backlog builds up which can create significant delays. Market makers may execute orders manually or reduce size guarantees during periods of volatility. When you place a market order, your order is executed on a first-come first-serve basis. This means if there are orders ahead of yours, those orders will be executed first. The execution of orders ahead of yours can significantly affect your execution price. Your submitted market order cannot be changed or cancelled once the stock begins trading.
Initial Public Offerings may be Volatile
IPOs for some internet, e-commerce and high tech issues may be particularly volatile as they begin to trade in the secondary market. Customers should be aware that market orders for these new public companies are executed at the current market price, not the initial offering price. Market orders are executed fully and promptly, without regard to price and in a fast market this may result in an execution significantly different from the current price quoted for that security. Using a limit order can limit your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price.
Large Orders in Fast Markets
Large orders are often filled in smaller blocks. An order for 10,000 shares will sometimes be executed in two blocks of 5,000 shares each. In a fast market, when you place an order for 10,000 shares and the real-time market quote indicates there are 15,000 shares at 5, you would expect your order to execute at 5.
In a fast market, with a backlog of orders, a real-time quote may not reflect the state of the market at the time your order is received by the market maker or specialist. Once the order is received, it is executed at the best prices available, depending on how many shares are offered at each price. Volatile markets may cause the market maker to reduce the size of guarantees.
This could result in your large order being filled in unexpected smaller blocks and at significantly different prices. For example: an order for 10,000 shares could be filled as 2,500 shares at 5 and 7,500 shares at 10, even though you received a real-time quote indicating that 15,000 shares were available at 5. In this example, the market moved significantly from the time the "real-time" market quote was received and when the order was submitted.
Online Trading and Duplicate Orders
Because fast markets can cause significant delays in the execution of a trade, you may be tempted to cancel and resubmit your order. Please consider these delays before canceling or changing your market order, and then resubmitting it. There is a chance that your order may have already been executed, but due to delays at the exchange, not yet reported. When you cancel or change and then resubmit a market order in a fast market, you run the risk of having duplicate orders executed.
Limit Orders Can Limit Risk
A limit order establishes a "buy price" at the maximum you're willing to pay, or a "sell price" at the lowest you are willing to receive. Placing limit orders instead of market orders can reduce your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. A limit order does not guarantee your order will be executed -" however, it does guarantee you will not pay a higher price than you expected.
Telephone and Online Access During Volatile Markets
During times of high market volatility, customers may experience delays with the Wells Fargo Online Brokerage web site or longer wait times when calling 1-800-TRADERS. It is possible that losses may be suffered due to difficulty in accessing accounts due to high internet traffic or extended wait times to speak to a telephone agent.
Freeriding is Prohibited
Freeriding is when you buy a security low and sell it high, during the same trading day, but use the proceeds of its sale to pay for the original purchase of the security. There is no prohibition against day trading, however you must avoid freeriding. To avoid freeriding, the funds for the original purchase of the security must come from a source other than the sale of the security.
Freeriding violates Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board concerning the extension of credit by the broker-dealer (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) to its customers. The penalty requires that the customer's account be frozen for 90 days.
Stop and Stop Limit Orders
A stop is an order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the stop price chosen. You are guaranteed to get an execution. For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price.
A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price.
A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better.
Glossary
All or None (AON)
A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed.
Day Order
A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session.
Fill or Kill
An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled.
Good Til Canceled (GTC)
An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order).
Immediate or Cancel
An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled.
Limit Order
An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases).
Maintenance Call
A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity.
Margin Requirement
Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales.
Market Makers
NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds.
Market Order
An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace.
Specialists
Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy.
Stop
An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price.
Stop Limit
An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order.
These articles are for information and education purposes only. You will need to evaluate the merits and risks associated with relying on any information provided. Although this article may provide information relating to approaches to investing or types of securities and investments you might buy or sell, Wells Fargo and its affiliates are not providing investment recommendations, advice, or endorsements. Data have been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Wells Fargo makes no warranties and bears no liability for your use of this information. The information made available to you is not intended, and should not be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice, or a legal opinion.