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Public Policy Shapes the Recovery

Mon, Oct 26 2009, 10:33 GMT
by Wachovia Research Team

Wells Fargo Investments, LLC


U.S. Review

Public Policy Shapes the Recovery

  • September’s 1.0 percent rise in the Leading Economic Index offers insight into next week’s first look at Q3 GDP. The LEI is up at an 11.8 percent annual rate over the past six months, the strongest gain since 1983.

  • Hopes that the recovery will rival the rebound from the 1981-2 recession will likely be disappointing—the growth mix is heavily weighted toward one-hit wonders like cash for clunkers and the first-time homebuyer tax credit.

  • Hiring plans and hours worked remain depressed as businesses weigh risks of healthcare reform, cap and trade legislation and less friendly business conditions.

After a Strong Start, Momentum will Fade

The Leading Economic Index rose a full percentage point in September, as eight of the ten indicators increased. The largest contributors were a wider interest rate spread, increased consumer expectations, and a decline in weekly unemployment claims. By contrast, the average workweek and building permits both declined. With September’s increase, the LEI has risen for six consecutive months and is up at an 11.8 percent annual rate over that time period. This marks the strongest six-month pace for the LEI since August 1983, when the U.S. economy was in the midst of one of its strongest recoveries ever.

Hopes for another strong recovery appear to us to be considerably overblown. Much of the improvement in the LEI has come from the financial indicators and expectations for future economic conditions. The historic drawdown in inventories is also apparent in the LEI, showing up as a slower pace of deliveries. The closer you get to actual economic conditions, however, the less buoyant the figures look. Orders for consumer goods and nondefense capital goods show relatively little improvement and the average factory workweek’s only real increase was in July, when motor vehicle output was restarted.

The coincident economic index, which measures current economic performance, was unchanged in September, following 0.1 percent gains in July and August. Continued declines in nonfarm payrolls and little to no growth in personal income and business sales are being offset by rising motor vehicle output. Increased motor vehicle output has lifted industrial production solidly over the past three months, benefitting a whole host of other industries ranging from steel to semiconductors. Without the lift from motor vehicle output, the improvement in industrial production would be imperceptible and the coincident economic index would still be negative.

One area where there has been real improvement has been jobless claims. Weekly first-time unemployment claims peaked back in March and are currently down 21 percent from their high. Unfortunately, unemployment claims remain extremely high. Claims rose 11,000 during the latest week to 531,000. First-time unemployment claims averaged 532,250 over the past four weeks, which means that roughly 2,129,000 jobs were lost last month. Hiring remains well below that level, which means nonfarm employment likely posted another hefty decline during October.

Another area of improvement has been housing. Housing starts rose 0.5 percent in September and have now risen for five of the past six months. All of the improvement has been in single-family homes, which have risen in six of the past seven months. Much of that increase is being attributed to the $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers, which expires on November 30. Since home purchases must be closed by November 30, the impact of the tax credit on new home construction has likely passed. We expect home construction to stall out near current levels or even give back some of its recent gains. A sustainable rise in home construction will require tangible improvement in the labor market, which we have yet to see.


Global Review

U.K. Economy Slumps for Sixth Consecutive Quarter

  • U.K. GDP data that were released this week, which indicated that the British economy had contracted for the sixth consecutive quarter, were disappointing. Not only did the manufacturing and construction sectors weaken further, the service sector also posted a modest decline.

  • The weaker-than-expected outturn raises the probability that the Bank of England will increase the size of its asset purchase program at next month’s policy meeting. If so, sterling could encounter some selling pressure as the money supply rises further.

News released this week that real GDP in the United Kingdom slumped 0.4 percent (not annualized) in the third quarter relative to the previous quarter was very disappointing. Not only was the outturn much worse that expected—the consensus forecast had looked for a modest increase—but the data show that the economy is now about 6 percent smaller than it was when it peaked in the first quarter of 2008. The news came as a surprise because the purchasing managers’ indices had suggested that the economy was expanding modestly (top graph). In addition, previously released data on consumer confidence, which rose to its highest level since April 2008, and the volume of retail sales had suggested that real personal consumption expenditures had grown somewhat in the third quarter.

UK Purchasing

A detailed breakdown of real GDP into its underlying demand components will not be available for a few more weeks. However, preliminary data suggest that construction spending and industrial production were notably weak in the third quarter. British statistical authorities said that the former fell 1.1 percent and the latter was off 0.7 percent. Relative to last year, industrial production is down more than 10 percent (middle chart). Output in the service sector also appears to have contracted modestly.

UK Industrial Production

One way to square the apparent growth in retail spending with the decline in overall GDP is via inventories. That is, British producers may still be slashing production to bring stocks back in line with final sales. If the soon-to-be-released demand-side components indicate that de-stocking did indeed weigh heavily on real GDP in the third quarter, then there may be a silver lining in the data. Namely, inventories may boost GDP over the next few quarters as the pace of de-stocking eases. Moreover, recoveries that appear to be underway in other parts of the world should eventually translate into stronger exports. The recent weakness of sterling, especially against the euro, should also help to bolster British exports (bottom chart).

UK Exchange Rates

What are the implications of the weaker-than-expected GDP data for Bank of England monetary policy going forward? The minutes of the Bank’s policy meeting in early October showed that all nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep the Bank’s main policy rate at 0.50 percent, where it has been maintained since early March. In addition, the MPC decided to keep the size of its unconventional asset purchase program unchanged at £175 billion. However, the minutes also indicate that the MPC would revisit the size of the asset purchase program next month when the quarterly Inflation Report is prepared.

In our view, the disappointing GDP data raises the probability that the MPC will increase the size of its asset purchase program. Until a self-sustaining recovery is underway, the MPC may err on the side of additional monetary stimulus. If the MPC does indeed announce plans next month to step up its purchases of government and corporate bonds, which would have the effect of further increasing the U.K. money supply, the British pound could come under some selling pressure.


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Many kinds of events can trigger a fast market, for example a highly anticipated Initial Public Offering (IPO), an important company news announcement or an analyst recommendation. Remember, fast market conditions can affect your trades regardless of whether they are placed with an agent, over the internet or on a touch tone telephone system. In Fast Markets service response and account access times may vary due to market conditions, systems performance, and other factors. Potential Risks in a Fast Market "Real-time" Price Quotes May Not be Accurate Prices and trades move so quickly in a fast market that there can be significant price differences between the quotes you receive one moment and the next. Even "real-time quotes" can be far behind what is currently happening in the market. The size of a quote, meaning the number of shares available at a particular price, may change just as quickly. A real-time quote for a fast moving stock may be more indicative of what has already occurred in the market rather than the price you will receive. Your Execution Price and Orders Ahead In a fast market, orders are submitted to market makers and specialists at such a rapid pace, that a backlog builds up which can create significant delays. Market makers may execute orders manually or reduce size guarantees during periods of volatility. When you place a market order, your order is executed on a first-come first-serve basis. This means if there are orders ahead of yours, those orders will be executed first. The execution of orders ahead of yours can significantly affect your execution price. Your submitted market order cannot be changed or cancelled once the stock begins trading. Initial Public Offerings may be Volatile IPOs for some internet, e-commerce and high tech issues may be particularly volatile as they begin to trade in the secondary market. Customers should be aware that market orders for these new public companies are executed at the current market price, not the initial offering price. Market orders are executed fully and promptly, without regard to price and in a fast market this may result in an execution significantly different from the current price quoted for that security. Using a limit order can limit your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. Large Orders in Fast Markets Large orders are often filled in smaller blocks. An order for 10,000 shares will sometimes be executed in two blocks of 5,000 shares each. In a fast market, when you place an order for 10,000 shares and the real-time market quote indicates there are 15,000 shares at 5, you would expect your order to execute at 5. In a fast market, with a backlog of orders, a real-time quote may not reflect the state of the market at the time your order is received by the market maker or specialist. Once the order is received, it is executed at the best prices available, depending on how many shares are offered at each price. Volatile markets may cause the market maker to reduce the size of guarantees. This could result in your large order being filled in unexpected smaller blocks and at significantly different prices. For example: an order for 10,000 shares could be filled as 2,500 shares at 5 and 7,500 shares at 10, even though you received a real-time quote indicating that 15,000 shares were available at 5. In this example, the market moved significantly from the time the "real-time" market quote was received and when the order was submitted. Online Trading and Duplicate Orders Because fast markets can cause significant delays in the execution of a trade, you may be tempted to cancel and resubmit your order. Please consider these delays before canceling or changing your market order, and then resubmitting it. There is a chance that your order may have already been executed, but due to delays at the exchange, not yet reported. When you cancel or change and then resubmit a market order in a fast market, you run the risk of having duplicate orders executed. Limit Orders Can Limit Risk A limit order establishes a "buy price" at the maximum you're willing to pay, or a "sell price" at the lowest you are willing to receive. Placing limit orders instead of market orders can reduce your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. A limit order does not guarantee your order will be executed -" however, it does guarantee you will not pay a higher price than you expected. Telephone and Online Access During Volatile Markets During times of high market volatility, customers may experience delays with the Wells Fargo Online Brokerage web site or longer wait times when calling 1-800-TRADERS. It is possible that losses may be suffered due to difficulty in accessing accounts due to high internet traffic or extended wait times to speak to a telephone agent. Freeriding is Prohibited Freeriding is when you buy a security low and sell it high, during the same trading day, but use the proceeds of its sale to pay for the original purchase of the security. There is no prohibition against day trading, however you must avoid freeriding. To avoid freeriding, the funds for the original purchase of the security must come from a source other than the sale of the security. Freeriding violates Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board concerning the extension of credit by the broker-dealer (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) to its customers. The penalty requires that the customer's account be frozen for 90 days. Stop and Stop Limit Orders A stop is an order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the stop price chosen. You are guaranteed to get an execution. For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better. Glossary All or None (AON) A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed. Day Order A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session. Fill or Kill An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled. Good Til Canceled (GTC) An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order). Immediate or Cancel An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled. Limit Order An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases). Maintenance Call A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity. Margin Requirement Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales. Market Makers NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds. Market Order An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace. Specialists Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy. Stop An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. Stop Limit An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order. These articles are for information and education purposes only. You will need to evaluate the merits and risks associated with relying on any information provided. Although this article may provide information relating to approaches to investing or types of securities and investments you might buy or sell, Wells Fargo and its affiliates are not providing investment recommendations, advice, or endorsements. Data have been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Wells Fargo makes no warranties and bears no liability for your use of this information. The information made available to you is not intended, and should not be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice, or a legal opinion.

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